Ethan Ampadu
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ethan Ampadu's performance-implied value at EUR 10.6M-32.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 21.1M-35.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 22.3M-40.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.63x the positional average in the league (3123 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 34
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 86.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €31.0M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3123 (91% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 87 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1521
- Opponent strength
- 1603
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €22.3M – €40.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -36% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Leeds United | Premier League | DM | 35 | 3123 | 91% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1603 | 1521 | 1.30 |
| 2022/23 | Spezia Calcio | Serie A | CB | 31 | 2648 | 77% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 1477 | 1310 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Venezia FC | Serie A | DM | 29 | 2289 | 67% | 0 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.17 | 1503 | 1241 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Sheffield United | Premier League | CB | 25 | 2091 | 61% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1572 | 1390 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | CB | 3 | 78 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1447 | 1700 | 1.06 |
| 2017/18 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | CB | 1 | 10 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1408 | 1667 | 1.15 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Leeds United | 5 | 464 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Spezia Calcio | 2 | 119 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Venezia FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Sheffield United | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 3 | 181 | 0 | 0 | 1658 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 2 | 155 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Chelsea FC | 3 | 128 | 0 | 0 | 1471 |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 3 | 183 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonny Otto Premier League · 2019 | 25 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Matheus Nunes Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €45.0M | €35.0M | fell |
| Rico Henry Premier League · 2022 | 25 | €20.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Mauro Arambarri Laliga · 2021 | 26 | €20.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Wilfred Ndidi Premier League · 2019 | 23 | €35.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Cheick Doucouré Premier League · 2023 | 23 | €35.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Davy Pröpper Premier League · 2018 | 27 | €15.0M | €13.5M | flat |
| Stanislav Lobotka Laliga · 2019 | 25 | €25.0M | €9.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jul 2023 | Chelsea | Leeds | €8.1M | €9.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Spezia Calcio | Chelsea | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 1 Sept 2022 | Chelsea | Spezia Calcio | Free / loan | €13.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Venezia | Chelsea | Free / loan | €13.0M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Chelsea | Venezia | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 31 May 2021 | Sheff Utd | Chelsea | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 7 Sept 2020 | Chelsea | Sheff Utd | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Leipzig | Chelsea | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 22 Jul 2019 | Chelsea | Leipzig | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Exeter City | Chelsea | €2.8M | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Exeter U18 | Exeter City | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Exeter Jugend | Exeter U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.