Matheus Nunes
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Matheus Nunes's performance-implied value at EUR 33.8M-67.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 23.3M-56.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 23.4M-39.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 14
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 98.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €41.8M vs market €50.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -41% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2865 (84% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.25
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 99 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1809
- Opponent strength
- 1581
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €23.4M – €39.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 35 pts; team strength up (+60 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -42% to +11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Manchester City | Premier League | RB | 34 | 2865 | 84% | 1 | 7 | 0.25 | 0.18 | 1581 | 1809 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Manchester City | Premier League | RB | 26 | 1672 | 49% | 1 | 6 | 0.38 | 0.20 | 1562 | 1749 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Manchester City | Premier League | CM | 17 | 654 | 19% | 0 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.10 | 1489 | 1893 | 1.14 |
| 2023/24 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | LM | 2 | 180 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 1659 | 1467 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | CM | 34 | 2478 | 72% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 1580 | 1497 | 1.23 |
| 2022/23 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | CM | 2 | 180 | 6% | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | 0.21 | 1427 | 1669 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | CM | 33 | 2569 | 84% | 3 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.11 | 1360 | 1692 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | CM | 31 | 1259 | 41% | 3 | 2 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 1367 | 1617 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | CM | 10 | 722 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1390 | 1492 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 6 | 434 | 0 | 0 | 1659 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Portugal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 7 | 531 | 1 | 3 | 1608 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1594 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 7 | 423 | 0 | 2 | 1541 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 2 | 162 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2 | 72 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 6 | 510 | 0 | 2 | 1636 |
| 2021/22 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1493 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Sporting CP | 2 | 161 | 0 | 0 | 1461 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Carvajal Laliga · 2020 | 28 | €40.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Antonio Rüdiger Premier League · 2022 | 29 | €40.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Sergio Ramos Laliga · 2014 | 28 | €40.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Luke Shaw Premier League · 2021 | 26 | €35.0M | €42.0M | rose |
| Jordi Alba Laliga · 2018 | 29 | €60.0M | €40.0M | fell |
| Marcelo Laliga · 2015 | 27 | €25.0M | €38.0M | rose |
| Aymeric Laporte Premier League · 2022 | 28 | €45.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Andrew Robertson Premier League · 2019 | 25 | €60.0M | €65.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2023 | Wolves | Man City | €62.0M | €45.0M |
| 18 Aug 2022 | Sporting | Wolves | €47.4M | €35.0M |
| 1 May 2020 | Sporting CP U23 | Sporting | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 Jan 2019 | Estoril | Sporting CP U23 | €950k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Ericeirense | Estoril | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Ericeirense S19 | Ericeirense | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Ericeirense S17 | Ericeirense S19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Ericeirense S15 | Ericeirense S17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Flamengo U17 | Ericeirense S15 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.