James Sands
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates James Sands's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-3.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.5M-6.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.4M-7.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.75x the positional average in the league (1941 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 37
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 46.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.1M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1941 (63% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 46 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 11)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1283
- Opponent strength
- 1504
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.4M – €7.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 49 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -47% (IQR -60% to -39%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC St. Pauli | Bundesliga | DM | 24 | 1941 | 63% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 1504 | 1283 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | FC St. Pauli | Bundesliga | DM | 7 | 452 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1458 | 1330 | 0.94 |
| 2022/23 | Rangers FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 17 | 918 | 31% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1301 | 1527 | 0.40 |
| 2021/22 | Rangers FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 4 | 258 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1246 | 1601 | 0.50 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | FC St. Pauli | 4 | 390 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Rangers FC | 4 | 349 | 0 | 0 | 1593 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Rangers FC | 4 | 325 | 0 | 0 | 1717 |
| 2022/23 | Scottish Fa Cup | Rangers FC | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Scottish Fa Cup | Rangers FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Rangers FC | 5 | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1613 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannelli Imbula Ligue 1 · 2018 | 26 | €6.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Kike Pérez Laliga · 2023 | 26 | €4.5M | €2.8M | fell |
| Fabio Depaoli Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Dalbert Serie A · 2022 | 29 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Martin Hongla Laliga · 2023 | 25 | €3.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Domagoj Bradarić Serie A · 2023 | 24 | €7.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Lorenzo Crisetig Serie A · 2017 | 24 | €3.0M | €800k | fell |
| Jimmy Cabot Ligue 1 · 2022 | 28 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | St. Pauli | New York City | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 1 Jan 2025 | New York City | St. Pauli | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Mar 2023 | Rangers | New York City | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 5 Jan 2022 | New York City | Rangers | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Nov 2018 | Louisville City | New York City | Free / loan | €100k |
| 15 Aug 2018 | New York City | Louisville City | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | NYCFC Academy | New York City | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | New York SC | NYCFC Academy | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.