Douglas Augusto

The model rates Douglas Augusto's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-9.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.0M-6.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.0M-5.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.50x the positional average in the league (1737 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

1737 (64% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.10

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.11

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

69 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.56 (rank 10)

Team strength (Elo)

1536

Opponent strength

1343

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

declining

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€2.0M – €5.1M

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+179 Elo); league level down (-122 Elo); relative output down 64% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -60% to -8%).

• ⚠Limited sample: 1737 league minutes last season.
• ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
• ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
• ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
• ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Historical movers

18 (MID)

Relative output kept

54%–153%

Held a regular role (900+ min)

56%

Confidence

Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.