Rafik Guitane
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rafik Guitane's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.9M-4.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.3M-5.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.11x the positional average in the league (1837 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 78
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 34.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.5M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -34% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1837 (60% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.39
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.44
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 34 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1305
- Opponent strength
- 1346
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.3M – €5.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 32 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -16% (IQR -39% to +7%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | RW | 30 | 1837 | 60% | 3 | 5 | 0.39 | 0.44 | 1346 | 1305 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | RW | 21 | 854 | 28% | 0 | 4 | 0.42 | 0.50 | 1335 | 1302 | 0.51 |
| 2024/25 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | RW | 1 | 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.62 | 1636 | 1478 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | RW | 33 | 2722 | 89% | 5 | 3 | 0.26 | 0.36 | 1378 | 1279 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | RW | 13 | 789 | 26% | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.41 | 1390 | 1252 | 0.68 |
| 2022/23 | Stade Reims | Ligue 1 | RW | 1 | 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 1263 | 1425 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | CS Marítimo | Liga Portugal | RW | 29 | 1920 | 63% | 4 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.39 | 1371 | 1302 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | CS Marítimo | Liga Portugal | AM | 26 | 1505 | 49% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.23 | 1358 | 1259 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | RW | 2 | 14 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 1403 | 1507 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1574 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Stade Rennais FC | 2 | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1591 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rochinha Liga Portugal · 2021 | 26 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Nikolay Komlichenko Premier Liga · 2022 | 27 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Clayton Liga Portugal · 2024 | 25 | €2.5M | €6.0M | rose |
| Ilombe Mboyo Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 28 | €2.5M | €500k | fell |
| Rui Fonte Liga Portugal · 2017 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Egor Golenkov Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €2.0M | €1.7M | flat |
| Trezeguet Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €11.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Bernard Berisha Premier Liga · 2017 | 26 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Dec 2024 | Braga | Estoril | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Estoril | Braga | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 23 Jul 2023 | Stade Reims | Estoril | €250k | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Estoril | Stade Reims | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Stade Reims | Estoril | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Marítimo | Stade Reims | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Stade Reims | Marítimo | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Aug 2021 | Stade Rennais | Stade Reims | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Marítimo | Stade Rennais | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 12 Aug 2020 | Stade Rennais | Marítimo | Free / loan | €2.7M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Le Havre AC | Stade Rennais | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 1 Feb 2018 | Stade Rennais | Le Havre AC | Free / loan | €150k |
| 31 Jan 2018 | Le Havre AC | Stade Rennais | €8.0M | €150k |
| 21 Jul 2016 | Le Havre U19 | Le Havre AC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Le Havre U17 | Le Havre U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Évreux Jugend | Le Havre U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.