Antoine Bernede
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Antoine Bernede's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-4.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.8M-3.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.8M-4.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.92x the positional average in the league (2316 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 64
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 47.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.4M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2316 (68% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 48 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1269
- Opponent strength
- 1511
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.8M – €4.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 50 pts; team strength down (-97 Elo); relative output down 23% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -41% to -4%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | CM | 32 | 2316 | 68% | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.20 | 1511 | 1269 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | CM | 14 | 593 | 17% | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.26 | 1521 | 1366 | 0.99 |
| 2018/19 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CM | 2 | 170 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1340 | 1714 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 1 | 80 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1620 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabio Depaoli Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Darko Lazović Serie A · 2017 | 27 | €2.5M | €3.0M | rose |
| Kike Pérez Laliga · 2023 | 26 | €4.5M | €2.8M | fell |
| Alberto Grassi Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €2.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Dalbert Serie A · 2022 | 29 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Hernani Serie A · 2020 | 26 | €3.2M | €3.0M | flat |
| Alessandro Deiola Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €2.0M | €1.9M | flat |
| Jimmy Cabot Ligue 1 · 2022 | 28 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Lausanne-Sport | Hellas Verona | €2.0M | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Hellas Verona | Lausanne-Sport | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 3 Feb 2025 | Lausanne-Sport | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Salzburg | Lausanne-Sport | €2.2M | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Lausanne-Sport | Salzburg | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 9 Jan 2023 | Salzburg | Lausanne-Sport | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 6 Feb 2019 | PSG | Salzburg | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Paris SG B | PSG | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Paris SG U19 | Paris SG B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Paris SG U17 | Paris SG U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | PSG Youth | Paris SG U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Solitaires | PSG Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.