Finlay Robertson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Finlay Robertson's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.47x the positional average in the league (1082 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 96
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 6.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €308k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1082 (36% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.32
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 6 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1121
- Opponent strength
- 1267
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €292k – €938k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -3% (IQR -18% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1082 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dundee FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 21 | 1082 | 36% | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.32 | 1267 | 1121 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Dundee FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 26 | 1510 | 51% | 0 | 4 | 0.24 | 0.28 | 1286 | 1122 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Dundee FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 10 | 516 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1306 | 1153 | 0.34 |
| 2021/22 | Dundee FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 2 | 96 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 1359 | 1124 | 0.50 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee FC | 1 | 40 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee FC | 3 | 198 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Kelly Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 24 | €550k | €550k | flat |
| Karlo Muhar Super Lig · 2021 | 25 | €550k | €1.2M | rose |
| Zisis Chatzistravos Super League 1 · 2024 | 25 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Yan Dhanda Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 25 | €750k | €700k | flat |
| Dara Costelloe Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 22 | €325k | €325k | flat |
| Yegor Demchenko Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| Mads Kaalund Superliga · 2020 | 24 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Nazariy Vorobchak Premier Liga · 2023 | 23 | €300k | €100k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jan 2022 | Cove Rangers | Dundee FC | Free / loan | €200k |
| 24 Sept 2021 | Dundee FC | Cove Rangers | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Dundee U18 | Dundee FC | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Dundee U17 | Dundee U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.