Ross Graham
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ross Graham's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 94
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 9.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €296k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1375 (46% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 10 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1178
- Opponent strength
- 1234
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €356k – €1.0M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 40% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -68% to +10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1375 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 16 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 90%–275%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 75%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dundee United FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 16 | 1375 | 46% | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 1234 | 1177 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Dundee United FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 15 | 1174 | 40% | 4 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.20 | 1260 | 1193 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Dundee United FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 13 | 898 | 30% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 1306 | 1176 | 0.40 |
| 2021/22 | Dundee United FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 11 | 855 | 29% | 2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.15 | 1302 | 1261 | 0.50 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee United FC | 3 | 270 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee United FC | 1 | 84 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee United FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee United FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Scottish Fa Cup | Cove Rangers FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefanos Stroungis Super League 1 · 2022 | 25 | €450k | €400k | flat |
| Ramazan Civelek Super Lig · 2021 | 25 | €800k | €850k | flat |
| Vahid Selimovic Super League 1 · 2021 | 24 | €600k | €200k | fell |
| Marko Mihojevic Super Lig · 2021 | 25 | €1.6M | €200k | fell |
| Leroy Abanda Super League 1 · 2024 | 24 | €700k | €450k | fell |
| Pedro Amaral Super League 1 · 2024 | 27 | €700k | €2.0M | rose |
| Antonio Portales Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 28 | €650k | €800k | rose |
| Denys Norenkov Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €500k | €150k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jan 2022 | Dunfermline A. | Dundee United | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Dundee United | Dunfermline A. | Free / loan | €50k |
| 12 May 2021 | Cove Rangers | Dundee United | Free / loan | €25k |
| 5 Mar 2021 | Dundee United | Cove Rangers | Free / loan | €25k |
| 15 Jan 2021 | Cove Rangers | Dundee United | Free / loan | €25k |
| 8 Oct 2020 | Dundee United | Cove Rangers | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Dundee Utd. B | Dundee United | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Apr 2020 | Elgin City | Dundee Utd. B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 18 Jan 2020 | Dundee Utd. B | Elgin City | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Dundee Utd. U18 | Dundee Utd. B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Dundee Utd U17 | Dundee Utd. U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.