Siebe Van der Heyden

28 yrs · Centre-back (also LB) · Belgium
KAA Gent · Jupiler Pro League · Foot: left · Height: 185 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€3.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.2M – €3.5M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.3M – €3.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.3M – €3.5M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€2.2M – €2.1M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.2M – €3.5M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.3M – €3.3M
Projected value (24 months)€1.3M – €3.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€3.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Siebe Van der Heyden's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-3.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-3.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-3.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 52

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage52.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.1 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €2.2M vs market €3.0M
Expected appreciationLow-25% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.65
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €4.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2145 (79% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.13
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.10
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
53 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.65 (rank 6)
Team strength (Elo)
1403
Opponent strength
1372
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.3M – €3.5M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 51 pts; changed club; team strength up (+65 Elo); league level down (-109 Elo); relative output down 26% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -46% to +15%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
76 (DEF)
Relative output kept
67%–160%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
76%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26KAA GentJupiler Pro LeagueCB26214579%210.130.09137214030.65
2024/25FC St. PauliBundesligaCB1387629%100.100.13155913300.94
2024/25RCD MallorcaLaligaLB2963%000.000.15145014150.95
2023/24RCD MallorcaLaligaCB62858%000.000.08153414361.00
2022/23Union Saint-GilloiseJupiler Pro LeagueCB27235177%110.080.05130615710.58
2021/22Union Saint-GilloiseJupiler Pro LeagueCB25201366%000.000.02134514990.49

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Jupiler Pro League Playoff IKAA Gent9810001476
2023/24Copa Del ReyRCD Mallorca533200—
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueUnion Saint-Gilloise8720001573
2022/23Uefa Champions League QualifyingUnion Saint-Gilloise2180001611

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Rafa Soares
Liga Portugal · 2022
27€2.0M€1.2Mfell
Sequeira
Liga Portugal · 2019
29€4.0M€4.0Mflat
Cristian Ramírez
Premier Liga · 2023
29€5.0M€2.5Mfell
Stoppila Sunzu
Premier Liga · 2018
29€2.0M€1.2Mfell
Dennis Appiah
Jupiler Pro League · 2018
26€2.5M€1.4Mfell
Timo Letschert
Eredivisie · 2019
26€2.5M€1.0Mfell
Lamine Koné
Ligue 1 · 2015
26€2.5M€7.0Mrose
Marcelo
Liga Portugal · 2016
27€1.7M€3.0Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
25 Jul 2025RCD MallorcaKAA Gent€2.0M€2.5M
30 Jun 2025St. PauliRCD MallorcaFree / loan€2.5M
30 Jan 2025RCD MallorcaSt. PauliFree / loan€1.5M
18 Jul 2023Union SGRCD Mallorca€2.7M€4.0M
12 Jul 2019FC EindhovenUnion SG€100k€275k
30 Jul 2018KV OostendeFC EindhovenFree / loan€100k
1 Jul 2016Anderlecht U19KV OostendeFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Anderlecht U17Anderlecht U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Anderlecht Yth.Anderlecht U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Club Brugge YthAnderlecht Yth.Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2008Dender Yth.Club Brugge YthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Siebe Van der Heyden · MoneyballAI