
Siebe Van der Heyden
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Siebe Van der Heyden's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-3.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-3.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-3.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 52
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 52.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.2M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2145 (79% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 53 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1403
- Opponent strength
- 1372
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €3.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 51 pts; changed club; team strength up (+65 Elo); league level down (-109 Elo); relative output down 26% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -46% to +15%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 26 | 2145 | 79% | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 1372 | 1403 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | FC St. Pauli | Bundesliga | CB | 13 | 876 | 29% | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 1559 | 1330 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | LB | 2 | 96 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1450 | 1415 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | CB | 6 | 285 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1534 | 1436 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 27 | 2351 | 77% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 1306 | 1571 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 25 | 2013 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1345 | 1499 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | KAA Gent | 9 | 810 | 0 | 0 | 1476 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Mallorca | 5 | 332 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Union Saint-Gilloise | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | 1573 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Union Saint-Gilloise | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1611 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafa Soares Liga Portugal · 2022 | 27 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Sequeira Liga Portugal · 2019 | 29 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Cristian Ramírez Premier Liga · 2023 | 29 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Stoppila Sunzu Premier Liga · 2018 | 29 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Dennis Appiah Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 26 | €2.5M | €1.4M | fell |
| Timo Letschert Eredivisie · 2019 | 26 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Lamine Koné Ligue 1 · 2015 | 26 | €2.5M | €7.0M | rose |
| Marcelo Liga Portugal · 2016 | 27 | €1.7M | €3.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2025 | RCD Mallorca | KAA Gent | €2.0M | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | St. Pauli | RCD Mallorca | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jan 2025 | RCD Mallorca | St. Pauli | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 18 Jul 2023 | Union SG | RCD Mallorca | €2.7M | €4.0M |
| 12 Jul 2019 | FC Eindhoven | Union SG | €100k | €275k |
| 30 Jul 2018 | KV Oostende | FC Eindhoven | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Anderlecht U19 | KV Oostende | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Anderlecht U17 | Anderlecht U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Anderlecht Yth. | Anderlecht U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Club Brugge Yth | Anderlecht Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Dender Yth. | Club Brugge Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.