Jadon Sancho
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jadon Sancho's performance-implied value at EUR 25.8M-42.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.3M-28.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.0M-21.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.64x the positional average in the league (873 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Elite | 91.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €15.7M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 873 (26% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.21
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.25
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 92 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1721
- Opponent strength
- 1609
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.0M – €21.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 26 pts; changed club; role change LW -> RW.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -56% to -31%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 873 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aston Villa | Premier League | RW | 23 | 873 | 26% | 0 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.25 | 1609 | 1721 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | LW | 31 | 1765 | 52% | 3 | 5 | 0.41 | 0.32 | 1548 | 1699 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | RW | 14 | 954 | 31% | 2 | 3 | 0.47 | 0.29 | 1523 | 1716 | 1.01 |
| 2023/24 | Manchester United | Premier League | LW | 3 | 76 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 1509 | 1594 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Manchester United | Premier League | LW | 26 | 1700 | 50% | 6 | 3 | 0.48 | 0.38 | 1563 | 1699 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Manchester United | Premier League | LW | 29 | 1901 | 56% | 3 | 3 | 0.28 | 0.26 | 1552 | 1609 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | LW | 26 | 2071 | 68% | 8 | 12 | 0.87 | 0.47 | 1517 | 1703 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | RW | 32 | 2292 | 75% | 17 | 17 | 1.34 | 0.61 | 1489 | 1700 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | RW | 34 | 2460 | 80% | 12 | 18 | 1.10 | 0.57 | 1508 | 1683 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | LW | 12 | 685 | 22% | 1 | 4 | 0.66 | 0.43 | 1504 | 1592 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Aston Villa | 12 | 679 | 1 | 1 | 1469 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 2 | 37 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 2 | 119 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Community Shield | Manchester United | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1893 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 563 | 1 | 0 | 1744 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 10 | 496 | 1 | 0 | 1599 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 3 | 203 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester United | 7 | 394 | 1 | 0 | 1658 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 1 | 100 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 517 | 6 | 5 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 386 | 2 | 3 | 1597 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 648 | 2 | 2 | 1676 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 256 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 81 | 1 | 1 | 1839 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 438 | 1 | 1 | 1676 |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 69 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Pépé Premier League · 2022 | 27 | €25.0M | €8.5M | fell |
| Adrián López Laliga · 2014 | 26 | €8.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Wilfried Bony Premier League · 2016 | 28 | €23.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Gianluca Scamacca Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €22.0M | €24.0M | flat |
| Lucas Vázquez Laliga · 2020 | 29 | €16.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Anthony Martial Laliga · 2022 | 27 | €16.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Daniel James Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €18.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| André Schürrle Bundesliga · 2017 | 27 | €20.0M | €12.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Man Utd | Without Club | Unknown | €18.0M |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Aston Villa | Man Utd | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 1 Sept 2025 | Man Utd | Aston Villa | Free / loan | €28.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Chelsea | Man Utd | Free / loan | €28.0M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Man Utd | Chelsea | Free / loan | €30.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Dortmund | Man Utd | Free / loan | €30.0M |
| 11 Jan 2024 | Man Utd | Dortmund | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 23 Jul 2021 | Dortmund | Man Utd | €85.0M | €100M |
| 31 Aug 2017 | Man City U18 | Dortmund | €20.6M | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Man City Youth | Man City U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 7 Mar 2015 | Watford Yth. | Man City Youth | €172k | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.