Giacomo Raspadori
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Giacomo Raspadori's performance-implied value at EUR 6.6M-26.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 16.1M-25.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.5M-20.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.74x the positional average in the league (1019 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 5
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 78.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €20.7M vs market €22.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -45% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1019 (30% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.53
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.41
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 79 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1595
- Opponent strength
- 1475
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.5M – €20.2M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-65 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -30% (IQR -65% to -24%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1019 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | SS | 13 | 793 | 23% | 3 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.41 | 1475 | 1588 | 0.93 |
| 2025/26 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | ST | 12 | 226 | 7% | 0 | 2 | 0.80 | 0.32 | 1407 | 1619 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | SS | 26 | 1097 | 32% | 6 | 1 | 0.57 | 0.41 | 1455 | 1660 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | SS | 37 | 1571 | 46% | 5 | 3 | 0.46 | 0.39 | 1468 | 1569 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | SS | 25 | 902 | 26% | 2 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.33 | 1417 | 1739 | 0.94 |
| 2022/23 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | SS | 1 | 45 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.92 | 1623 | 1420 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | SS | 36 | 2754 | 81% | 10 | 6 | 0.52 | 0.60 | 1471 | 1464 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | ST | 27 | 1225 | 36% | 6 | 3 | 0.66 | 0.59 | 1487 | 1502 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | ST | 11 | 257 | 8% | 2 | 0 | 0.70 | 0.61 | 1492 | 1428 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | SS | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.90 | 1596 | 1351 | 0.78 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 2 | 124 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 2 | 108 | 1 | 1 | 1703 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Atalanta BC | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1872 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 3 | 228 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | SSC Napoli | 8 | 250 | 1 | 0 | 1540 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 1 | 63 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Supercoppa Italiana | SSC Napoli | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1810 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | SSC Napoli | 7 | 250 | 4 | 3 | 1648 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | US Sassuolo | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 1 | 65 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | US Sassuolo | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | US Sassuolo | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | US Sassuolo | 2 | 95 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samu Castillejo Serie A · 2020 | 25 | €11.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Arnaut Danjuma Laliga · 2023 | 26 | €25.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Moise Kean Serie A · 2023 | 23 | €18.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Daniel Sturridge Premier League · 2017 | 28 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Giovani Lo Celso Laliga · 2022 | 26 | €22.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Sardar Azmoun Bundesliga · 2023 | 28 | €12.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Manolo Gabbiadini Premier League · 2017 | 26 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Guido Carrillo Premier League · 2018 | 27 | €15.0M | €4.8M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jan 2026 | Atlético | Atalanta | €22.0M | €22.0M |
| 11 Aug 2025 | Napoli | Atlético | €22.0M | €25.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Sassuolo | Napoli | €28.0M | €35.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Napoli | Sassuolo | Free / loan | €35.0M |
| 20 Aug 2022 | Sassuolo | Napoli | Free / loan | €28.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Sassuolo U20 | Sassuolo | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Sassuolo U17 | Sassuolo U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Sassuolo Yth. | Sassuolo U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Progresso Gio. | Sassuolo Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.