Moise Kean
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Moise Kean's performance-implied value at EUR 9.5M-38.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 22.3M-40.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 12.1M-29.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.86x the positional average in the league (2041 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 6
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 89.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €30.1M vs market €32.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -43% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2041 (60% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.40
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.43
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 90 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1506
- Opponent strength
- 1503
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €12.1M – €29.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 20 pts; team strength down (-74 Elo); relative output down 27% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -45% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | ST | 26 | 2041 | 60% | 8 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.43 | 1503 | 1506 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | ST | 32 | 2711 | 79% | 19 | 3 | 0.73 | 0.62 | 1523 | 1580 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Juventus FC | Serie A | ST | 19 | 650 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 1489 | 1621 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Juventus FC | Serie A | ST | 28 | 988 | 29% | 6 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.38 | 1417 | 1614 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Juventus FC | Serie A | ST | 32 | 1090 | 32% | 5 | 3 | 0.66 | 0.35 | 1432 | 1623 | 0.89 |
| 2021/22 | Everton FC | Premier League | ST | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 1565 | 1474 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | ST | 26 | 1710 | 50% | 13 | 0 | 0.68 | 0.32 | 1440 | 1727 | 0.75 |
| 2020/21 | Everton FC | Premier League | ST | 2 | 13 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 1414 | 1561 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Everton FC | Premier League | ST | 29 | 835 | 24% | 2 | 2 | 0.43 | 0.47 | 1558 | 1525 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Juventus FC | Serie A | ST | 13 | 533 | 16% | 6 | 0 | 1.01 | 0.32 | 1417 | 1701 | 0.78 |
| 2017/18 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | ST | 19 | 1134 | 33% | 4 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.66 | 1534 | 1221 | 0.86 |
| 2016/17 | Juventus FC | Serie A | ST | 3 | 18 | 1% | 1 | 0 | 5.00 | 0.22 | 1338 | 1832 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 1 | 45 | 0 | 2 | 1216 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 136 | 2 | 0 | 1419 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Juventus FC | 5 | 234 | 0 | 0 | 1556 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 2 | 109 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 5 | 107 | 1 | 0 | 1636 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 6 | 167 | 1 | 0 | 1595 |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 3 | 87 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Supercoppa Italiana | Juventus FC | 1 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1771 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 9 | 440 | 3 | 1 | 1692 |
| 2020/21 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1522 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 3 | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1682 |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 1 | 62 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1668 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terem Moffi Ligue 1 · 2024 | 25 | €25.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Cenk Tosun Super Lig · 2018 | 27 | €23.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Breel Embolo Ligue 1 · 2023 | 26 | €20.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Amine Gouiri Ligue 1 · 2024 | 24 | €25.0M | €28.0M | flat |
| Quincy Promes Laliga · 2019 | 27 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Beto Serie A · 2023 | 25 | €25.0M | €22.0M | flat |
| Krzysztof Piatek Serie A · 2020 | 25 | €21.5M | €12.0M | fell |
| Ritsu Doan Bundesliga · 2024 | 26 | €18.0M | €17.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2024 | Juventus | Fiorentina | €14.5M | €14.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Everton | Juventus | €30.0M | €18.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Juventus | Everton | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Everton | Juventus | Free / loan | €35.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | PSG | Everton | Free / loan | €35.0M |
| 4 Oct 2020 | Everton | PSG | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 4 Aug 2019 | Juventus | Everton | €27.5M | €40.0M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Hellas Verona | Juventus | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 31 Aug 2017 | Juventus | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Juventus U19 | Juventus | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Juventus U17 | Juventus U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Juventus Youth | Juventus U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Torino FC Youth | Juventus Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Asti Giovanili | Torino FC Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | Don Bosco Asti | Asti Giovanili | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.