Ademola Lookman
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ademola Lookman's performance-implied value at EUR 14.0M-40.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 27.3M-42.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 12.7M-25.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.70x the positional average in the league (1419 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 0
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 94.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €35.0M vs market €40.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -61% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1419 (42% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.38
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.30
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 95 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1602
- Opponent strength
- 1461
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €12.7M – €25.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 25 pts; team strength down (-77 Elo); relative output down 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -50% to -11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1419 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | SS | 12 | 797 | 23% | 2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.30 | 1461 | 1588 | 0.93 |
| 2025/26 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | SS | 12 | 622 | 18% | 4 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.47 | 1489 | 1619 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | SS | 31 | 2265 | 66% | 15 | 5 | 0.79 | 0.50 | 1503 | 1679 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | SS | 31 | 1901 | 56% | 11 | 8 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 1478 | 1709 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | SS | 31 | 1732 | 51% | 13 | 8 | 1.09 | 0.91 | 1453 | 1556 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Leicester City | Premier League | RW | 26 | 1457 | 43% | 6 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 1574 | 1582 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Fulham FC | Premier League | LW | 34 | 2756 | 81% | 4 | 4 | 0.26 | 0.48 | 1581 | 1352 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | RW | 11 | 300 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1498 | 1700 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Everton FC | Premier League | RW | 21 | 601 | 18% | 0 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.37 | 1527 | 1594 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | LW | 11 | 575 | 19% | 5 | 4 | 1.41 | 0.66 | 1475 | 1570 | 1.04 |
| 2017/18 | Everton FC | Premier League | LW | 7 | 152 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 1456 | 1516 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | Everton FC | Premier League | LW | 8 | 290 | 8% | 1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.29 | 1437 | 1570 | 1.07 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Nigeria | 6 | 517 | 3 | 4 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 8 | 487 | 2 | 2 | 1722 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Atalanta BC | 7 | 443 | 1 | 2 | 1597 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 4 | 272 | 3 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Atalanta BC | 7 | 482 | 5 | 2 | 1641 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Super Cup | Atalanta BC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1881 |
| 2024/25 | Supercoppa Italiana | Atalanta BC | 1 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 1833 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Atalanta BC | 11 | 720 | 5 | 1 | 1616 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 3 | 188 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 2 | 126 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Leicester City | 2 | 151 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Leicester City | 4 | 147 | 0 | 1 | 1476 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 1 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1585 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 2 | 169 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Everton FC | 3 | 225 | 2 | 0 | 1517 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Everton FC | 3 | 143 | 0 | 0 | 1428 |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 1 | 38 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Fa Cup | Charlton Athletic | 3 | 273 | 2 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrik Schick Bundesliga · 2023 | 27 | €25.0M | €27.0M | flat |
| Juan Cuadrado Serie A · 2015 | 27 | €30.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Arkadiusz Milik Serie A · 2020 | 26 | €32.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Emil Forsberg Bundesliga · 2018 | 27 | €25.0M | €22.5M | flat |
| Lucas Ocampos Laliga · 2023 | 29 | €12.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Hirving Lozano Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €30.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Matteo Politano Serie A · 2020 | 27 | €22.5M | €20.0M | flat |
| Joaquín Correa Serie A · 2021 | 27 | €30.0M | €12.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Feb 2026 | Atalanta | Atlético | €35.0M | €35.0M |
| 4 Aug 2022 | Leipzig | Atalanta | €16.1M | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Leicester | Leipzig | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Leipzig | Leicester | Free / loan | €11.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Fulham | Leipzig | Free / loan | €11.0M |
| 30 Sept 2020 | Leipzig | Fulham | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 25 Jul 2019 | Everton | Leipzig | €18.0M | €20.0M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Leipzig | Everton | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 31 Jan 2018 | Everton | Leipzig | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 5 Jan 2017 | Charlton | Everton | €8.8M | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Charlton U18 | Charlton | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.