Matt O'Riley

The model rates Matt O'Riley's performance-implied value at EUR 4.6M-15.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.9M-22.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.4M-23.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.06x the positional average in the league (942 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

942 (28% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.38

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.23

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

72 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.88 (rank 5)

Team strength (Elo)

1527

Opponent strength

1455

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Moderate

Trajectory

declining

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€7.4M – €23.5M

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-71 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -12% (IQR -47% to +2%).

• ⚠Limited sample: 942 league minutes last season.
• ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
• ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.