Raphinha
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Raphinha's performance-implied value at EUR 32.9M-93.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 32.9M-71.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 23.8M-46.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.02x the positional average in the league (1389 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 3
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 98.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €47.4M vs market €70.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -63% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1389 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 1.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.41
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 99 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1787
- Opponent strength
- 1452
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €23.8M – €46.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 43 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -73% (IQR -85% to -45%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1389 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | LW | 22 | 1389 | 41% | 13 | 3 | 1.04 | 0.42 | 1452 | 1787 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | LW | 36 | 2845 | 83% | 18 | 12 | 0.95 | 0.51 | 1505 | 1792 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | RW | 28 | 1371 | 40% | 6 | 9 | 0.98 | 0.60 | 1498 | 1723 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | RW | 36 | 2084 | 61% | 7 | 7 | 0.60 | 0.36 | 1507 | 1696 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Leeds United | Premier League | RW | 35 | 2923 | 85% | 11 | 3 | 0.43 | 0.46 | 1574 | 1477 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Leeds United | Premier League | RW | 30 | 2364 | 69% | 6 | 9 | 0.57 | 0.61 | 1556 | 1573 | 1.19 |
| 2020/21 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | RW | 6 | 407 | 12% | 1 | 2 | 0.66 | 0.43 | 1437 | 1445 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | RW | 22 | 1693 | 67% | 5 | 3 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 1412 | 1507 | 0.82 |
| 2019/20 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | RW | 4 | 360 | 12% | 2 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.30 | 1386 | 1492 | 0.59 |
| 2018/19 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | RW | 24 | 1511 | 49% | 4 | 3 | 0.42 | 0.27 | 1365 | 1634 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | LW | 32 | 2792 | 91% | 15 | 5 | 0.64 | 0.56 | 1343 | 1335 | 0.64 |
| 2016/17 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | LW | 32 | 1703 | 56% | 4 | 6 | 0.53 | 0.54 | 1369 | 1396 | 0.58 |
| 2015/16 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | RW | 1 | 17 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 1330 | 1311 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 7 | 544 | 3 | 3 | 1578 |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 2 | 148 | 4 | 1 | 1648 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Brazil | 2 | 130 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 2 | 113 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 14 | 1224 | 13 | 9 | 1657 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 5 | 423 | 1 | 4 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 2 | 169 | 2 | 1 | 1743 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 7 | 473 | 3 | 4 | 1662 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 1 | 64 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 1 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1430 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 5 | 298 | 0 | 2 | 1693 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 5 | 287 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | FC Barcelona | 2 | 158 | 1 | 1 | 1691 |
| 2022/23 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 2 | 98 | 0 | 0 | 1642 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Leeds United | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Leeds United | 1 | 32 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Stade Rennais FC | 4 | 274 | 0 | 0 | 1508 |
| 2019/20 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1683 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 4 | 213 | 1 | 1 | 1481 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Vitória Guimarães SC | 6 | 503 | 0 | 0 | 1471 |
| 2017/18 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Vitória Guimarães SC | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1653 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sébastien Haller Bundesliga · 2023 | 29 | €30.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Eden Hazard Laliga · 2020 | 29 | €80.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Gerard Moreno Laliga · 2022 | 30 | €40.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Leandro Trossard Premier League · 2024 | 30 | €35.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Juan Mata Premier League · 2017 | 29 | €30.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Edinson Cavani Ligue 1 · 2019 | 32 | €40.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Sergio Agüero Premier League · 2020 | 32 | €52.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Olivier Giroud Premier League · 2015 | 29 | €24.0M | €22.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jul 2022 | Leeds | Barcelona | €58.0M | €45.0M |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Stade Rennais | Leeds | €18.6M | €16.0M |
| 2 Sept 2019 | Sporting | Stade Rennais | €21.0M | €8.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Vit. Guimarães | Sporting | €6.5M | €6.5M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Guimarães B | Vit. Guimarães | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Feb 2016 | Avaí U20 | Guimarães B | €600k | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.