Zian Flemming
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Zian Flemming's performance-implied value at EUR 4.3M-17.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.7M-19.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.4M-12.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.76x the positional average in the league (1776 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 5
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 77.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €11.9M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -41% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1776 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.56
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.89
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 77 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1343
- Opponent strength
- 1614
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.4M – €12.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -40% to -23%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1776 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Burnley FC | Premier League | ST | 29 | 1776 | 52% | 11 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.89 | 1614 | 1343 | 1.30 |
| 2021/22 | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | Eredivisie | AM | 28 | 2496 | 82% | 12 | 4 | 0.58 | 0.72 | 1347 | 1249 | 0.60 |
| 2019/20 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | AM | 4 | 218 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 1393 | 1272 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | AM | 25 | 1198 | 39% | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.26 | 1375 | 1271 | 0.61 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Burnley FC | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 120 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | PEC Zwolle | 3 | 241 | 4 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Adebayo Premier League · 2024 | 26 | €12.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Chimy Ávila Laliga · 2020 | 26 | €12.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| André Schürrle Premier League · 2019 | 29 | €12.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Aleksandar Mitrović Premier League · 2023 | 29 | €28.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Anwar El Ghazi Premier League · 2020 | 25 | €8.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Taiwo Awoniyi Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €25.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Álvaro García Laliga · 2019 | 27 | €5.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Domenico Berardi Serie A · 2024 | 30 | €10.0M | €7.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Millwall | Burnley | €8.3M | €6.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Burnley | Millwall | Free / loan | €6.5M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Millwall | Burnley | Free / loan | €4.2M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Fortuna Sittard | Millwall | €2.5M | €2.0M |
| 27 Aug 2020 | PEC Zwolle | Fortuna Sittard | €200k | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | NEC Nijmegen | PEC Zwolle | Free / loan | €800k |
| 2 Sept 2019 | PEC Zwolle | NEC Nijmegen | Free / loan | €750k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Ajax U21 | PEC Zwolle | €125k | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Ajax U19 | Ajax U21 | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Ajax U18 | Ajax U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Ajax U17 | Ajax U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Ajax Youth | Ajax U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Pancratius Yth. | Ajax Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.