Ezri Konsa
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ezri Konsa's performance-implied value at EUR 29.4M-63.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 24.5M-51.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 17.3M-27.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 3
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 99.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €36.7M vs market €40.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -50% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3036 (89% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.01
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 100 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1721
- Opponent strength
- 1586
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €17.3M – €27.5M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 80% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -46% (IQR -57% to +8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aston Villa | Premier League | CB | 34 | 3036 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1586 | 1721 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Aston Villa | Premier League | CB | 34 | 2937 | 86% | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 1563 | 1695 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Aston Villa | Premier League | CB | 35 | 3074 | 90% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 1576 | 1586 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Aston Villa | Premier League | CB | 38 | 3323 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1568 | 1625 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Aston Villa | Premier League | CB | 29 | 2481 | 73% | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 1601 | 1520 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Aston Villa | Premier League | CB | 36 | 3195 | 93% | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1579 | 1517 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Aston Villa | Premier League | CB | 25 | 2042 | 60% | 1 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.17 | 1609 | 1367 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Aston Villa | 11 | 864 | 2 | 1 | 1543 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | England | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Aston Villa | 11 | 990 | 1 | 0 | 1630 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 5 | 387 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aston Villa | 2 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1230 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Dier Premier League · 2022 | 28 | €28.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Jan Vertonghen Premier League · 2018 | 31 | €32.0M | €14.5M | fell |
| Ben White Premier League · 2022 | 25 | €40.0M | €55.0M | rose |
| Dakonam Djené Laliga · 2020 | 29 | €24.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Stefan Savic Laliga · 2018 | 27 | €40.0M | €25.5M | fell |
| Diego Godín Laliga · 2018 | 32 | €35.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Conor Coady Premier League · 2020 | 27 | €14.5M | €25.0M | rose |
| Kurt Zouma Premier League · 2020 | 26 | €28.0M | €28.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jul 2019 | Brentford | Aston Villa | €13.3M | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Charlton | Brentford | €2.9M | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Charlton U18 | Charlton | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.