Ragnar Ache
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ragnar Ache's performance-implied value at EUR 1.6M-5.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.0M-11.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.2M-9.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.33x the positional average in the league (1726 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 14
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 57.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €7.7M vs market €9.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -39% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1726 (56% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.63
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.67
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 58 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1347
- Opponent strength
- 1493
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.2M – €9.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -59% to -40%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1726 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | ST | 29 | 1726 | 56% | 7 | 5 | 0.63 | 0.67 | 1493 | 1347 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | ST | 13 | 249 | 8% | 0 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.39 | 1516 | 1594 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | ST | 7 | 92 | 3% | 1 | 0 | 0.98 | 0.55 | 1616 | 1602 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | ST | 19 | 1480 | 63% | 5 | 3 | 0.49 | 0.68 | 1389 | 1265 | 0.62 |
| 2017/18 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | ST | 19 | 507 | 17% | 2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.53 | 1285 | 1183 | 0.59 |
| 2016/17 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | ST | 1 | 10 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 1312 | 1223 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 2 | 105 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1717 |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cyle Larin Laliga · 2023 | 28 | €8.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Marco Sau Serie A · 2015 | 28 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Benjamin Moukandjo Ligue 1 · 2017 | 29 | €6.0M | €2.8M | fell |
| Moses Simon Ligue 1 · 2024 | 29 | €12.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Nuno da Costa Ligue 1 · 2019 | 28 | €5.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Kamil Grosicki Premier League · 2017 | 29 | €7.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Jhon Córdoba Bundesliga · 2020 | 27 | €9.5M | €15.0M | rose |
| Walid Cheddira Serie A · 2024 | 26 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | 1.FC K'lautern | 1.FC Köln | €4.5M | €7.0M |
| 25 Jul 2023 | Frankfurt | 1.FC K'lautern | €1.5M | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Greuther Fürth | Frankfurt | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Frankfurt | Greuther Fürth | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Sparta R. | Frankfurt | €2.0M | €900k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Sparta U21 | Sparta R. | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Sparta U19 | Sparta U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Sparta R. U17 | Sparta U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Sparta Youth | Sparta R. U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Sparta AV Yth. | Sparta Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Neu-Isenb. Jgd. | Sparta AV Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.