Álvaro Valles
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Álvaro Valles's performance-implied value at EUR 3.0M-7.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.4M-9.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.1M-9.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 45
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 77.6th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €5.8M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2520 (74% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 78 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1549
- Opponent strength
- 1490
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.1M – €9.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -41% (IQR -67% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | GK | 28 | 2520 | 74% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1490 | 1549 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | UD Las Palmas | Laliga | GK | 37 | 3264 | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1496 | 1344 | 1.00 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1477 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rui Silva Laliga · 2024 | 30 | €8.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Etrit Berisha Serie A · 2018 | 29 | €7.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Alfred Gomis Ligue 1 · 2022 | 29 | €8.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Koen Casteels Bundesliga · 2020 | 28 | €10.5M | €11.0M | flat |
| Jonas Omlin Bundesliga · 2023 | 29 | €9.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Emiliano Viviano Serie A · 2015 | 30 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Juan Musso Serie A · 2023 | 29 | €8.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Ralf Fährmann Bundesliga · 2015 | 27 | €6.0M | €9.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Without Club | Real Betis | Unknown | €2.5M |
| 10 Feb 2025 | UD Las Palmas | Without Club | Unknown | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Las Palmas Atl. | UD Las Palmas | Unknown | €100k |
| 10 Jul 2018 | Betis Deportivo | Las Palmas Atl. | Free / loan | €50k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | CD Gerena | Betis Deportivo | Free / loan | €50k |
| 6 Sept 2017 | Betis Deportivo | CD Gerena | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Betis U19 | Betis B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.