Amine Gouiri
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Amine Gouiri's performance-implied value at EUR 8.1M-18.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 20.3M-35.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 10.6M-22.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.09x the positional average in the league (1331 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 2
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 80.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €26.1M vs market €28.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -52% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1331 (44% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.74
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.55
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 81 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1504
- Opponent strength
- 1489
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €10.6M – €22.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 25 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -47% to -20%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1331 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | ST | 22 | 1331 | 43% | 8 | 3 | 0.74 | 0.55 | 1489 | 1504 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | ST | 14 | 1052 | 34% | 10 | 3 | 1.11 | 0.64 | 1430 | 1557 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | ST | 19 | 1037 | 34% | 3 | 2 | 0.43 | 0.46 | 1482 | 1450 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | LW | 31 | 2077 | 68% | 7 | 3 | 0.43 | 0.37 | 1479 | 1507 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | ST | 33 | 2531 | 74% | 15 | 4 | 0.68 | 0.47 | 1428 | 1562 | 0.82 |
| 2022/23 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | LW | 3 | 228 | 7% | 0 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.31 | 1345 | 1519 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | ST | 38 | 2764 | 81% | 10 | 9 | 0.62 | 0.56 | 1425 | 1493 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | LW | 34 | 2753 | 80% | 12 | 7 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 1437 | 1398 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | LW | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 1328 | 1566 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | LW | 7 | 76 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1407 | 1645 | 0.85 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Algeria | 3 | 221 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Marseille | 3 | 165 | 0 | 0 | 1646 |
| 2025/26 | Trophee Des Champions | Olympique Marseille | 1 | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1832 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Stade Rennais FC | 7 | 326 | 2 | 0 | 1545 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Stade Rennais FC | 7 | 454 | 2 | 3 | 1515 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | OGC Nice | 2 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1516 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | OGC Nice | 2 | 158 | 2 | 0 | 1568 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Lyon | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1570 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1561 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Terrier Ligue 1 · 2023 | 26 | €30.0M | €17.0M | fell |
| Memphis Depay Ligue 1 · 2020 | 26 | €44.0M | €35.0M | fell |
| Habib Diallo Ligue 1 · 2022 | 27 | €12.0M | €11.0M | flat |
| Mario Balotelli Ligue 1 · 2019 | 29 | €20.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Wilfried Bony Premier League · 2015 | 27 | €25.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Nico González Serie A · 2023 | 25 | €30.0M | €24.0M | fell |
| Ante Rebić Serie A · 2020 | 27 | €24.0M | €17.0M | fell |
| Saïd Benrahma Ligue 1 · 2024 | 29 | €20.0M | €8.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2025 | Stade Rennais | Marseille | €19.0M | €20.0M |
| 1 Sept 2022 | Nice | Stade Rennais | €28.0M | €42.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Lyon | Nice | €7.0M | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Olymp. Lyon B | Lyon | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Olymp. Lyon U19 | Olymp. Lyon B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Ol. Lyon Yth. | Olymp. Lyon U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Bourgoin Jugend | Ol. Lyon Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.