Jesús Ramírez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jesús Ramírez's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-2.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.7M-4.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.4M-5.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.42x the positional average in the league (2894 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 85
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 39.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.3M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2894 (95% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.56
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.72
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 40 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1231
- Opponent strength
- 1327
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.4M – €5.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 71 pts; changed club; team strength down (-181 Elo); relative output up 72% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -40% to -9%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CD Nacional | Liga Portugal | ST | 33 | 2894 | 95% | 18 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.72 | 1327 | 1231 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | ST | 25 | 721 | 24% | 3 | 2 | 0.62 | 0.44 | 1309 | 1412 | 0.51 |
| 2022/23 | CS Marítimo | Liga Portugal | ST | 22 | 570 | 19% | 1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.52 | 1369 | 1224 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Vitória Guimarães SC | 6 | 238 | 0 | 1 | 1332 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Kiese Thelin Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 26 | €2.5M | €1.6M | fell |
| Ali Sowe Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €3.0M | €1.9M | fell |
| Cyriel Dessers Eredivisie · 2020 | 26 | €3.2M | €6.0M | rose |
| Vedat Muriqi Super Lig · 2019 | 25 | €2.5M | €9.0M | rose |
| Ricky van Wolfswinkel Eredivisie · 2017 | 28 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Denis Drăguș Super Lig · 2024 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Salvador Agra Liga Portugal · 2016 | 25 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
| Frédéric Gounongbe Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 28 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2025 | Vit. Guimarães | Nacional | €600k | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Morelia | Vit. Guimarães | €660k | €900k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Nacional | Morelia | Free / loan | €900k |
| 14 Aug 2023 | Morelia | Nacional | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Marítimo | Morelia | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Jul 2022 | Morelia | Marítimo | Free / loan | €800k |
| 13 Jul 2021 | Coquimbo Unido | Morelia | Unknown | €450k |
| 18 Feb 2021 | Audax Italiano | Coquimbo Unido | Free / loan | €550k |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Coquimbo Unido | Audax Italiano | Free / loan | €450k |
| 23 Jul 2019 | Veracruz II | Coquimbo Unido | Free / loan | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Veracruz U20 | Veracruz II | Unknown | €25k |
| 18 Sept 2016 | Estudiantes | Veracruz U20 | Unknown | €25k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.