Mathis Suray
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mathis Suray's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-4.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.0M-4.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.31x the positional average in the league (2603 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 95
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 29.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2603 (85% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.48
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.53
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 29 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1245
- Opponent strength
- 1314
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.0M – €4.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 38 pts; relative output up 91% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -15% (IQR -36% to +7%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Go Ahead Eagles | Eredivisie | LW | 32 | 2603 | 85% | 12 | 2 | 0.48 | 0.53 | 1314 | 1245 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Go Ahead Eagles | Eredivisie | LW | 30 | 1454 | 48% | 3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.29 | 1317 | 1297 | 0.50 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Go Ahead Eagles | 8 | 686 | 1 | 0 | 1488 |
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Go Ahead Eagles | 3 | 295 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | Go Ahead Eagles | 1 | 75 | 1 | 0 | 1632 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Go Ahead Eagles | 5 | 280 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Go Ahead Eagles | 1 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1336 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denis Drăguș Super Lig · 2024 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Jean-Luc Dompé Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 27 | €2.2M | €2.0M | flat |
| Michiel Kramer Eredivisie · 2015 | 27 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Maksim Glushenkov Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €4.0M | €14.0M | rose |
| Apostolos Vellios Super League 1 · 2016 | 24 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Haji Wright Super Lig · 2023 | 25 | €6.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Lisandro Semedo Super League 1 · 2020 | 24 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Björn Johnsen Eredivisie · 2018 | 27 | €3.5M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | FC Dordrecht | Go Ahead Eagles | Unknown | €800k |
| 28 Sept 2020 | Anderlecht U21 | FC Dordrecht | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Anderlecht U17 | Anderlecht U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Anderlecht Yth. | Anderlecht U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.