Niklas Vesterlund
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Niklas Vesterlund's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 86
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 26.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €566k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1252 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 27 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1352
- Opponent strength
- 1308
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €684k – €2.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 20 pts; relative output down 47% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -52% (IQR -64% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1252 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | RB | 18 | 1252 | 41% | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 1308 | 1352 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | RB | 8 | 639 | 21% | 1 | 2 | 0.42 | 0.23 | 1344 | 1409 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | RB | 9 | 269 | 9% | 0 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.20 | 1433 | 1354 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | FC Utrecht | 4 | 270 | 0 | 1 | 1468 |
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Utrecht | 3 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1342 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 2 | 68 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Oddset Pokalen | Viby IF | 1 | 76 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yevgen Selin Premier Liga · 2015 | 27 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Umut Meraş Super Lig · 2022 | 27 | €2.1M | €375k | fell |
| Oumar Sako Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €1.2M | €2.5M | rose |
| Lazaros Rota Super League 1 · 2022 | 25 | €1.0M | €2.0M | rose |
| Cemali Sertel Super Lig · 2024 | 24 | €1.2M | €600k | fell |
| Pedro Rebocho Liga Portugal · 2021 | 26 | €1.5M | €700k | fell |
| Simon Falette Super Lig · 2020 | 28 | €2.4M | €275k | fell |
| Martin Linnes Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €2.0M | €900k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2024 | Tromsø IL | Utrecht | €600k | €1.2M |
| 11 May 2021 | Trelleborg | Tromsø IL | €20k | €100k |
| 7 Feb 2019 | Copenhagen U19 | Trelleborg | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | FCK Youth | Copenhagen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.