Jari De Busser
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jari De Busser's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.6M-4.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.8M-5.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 76
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 36.6th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.6M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3060 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 37 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1245
- Opponent strength
- 1305
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.8M – €5.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 53 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -17% (IQR -56% to +66%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 217 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 70%–152%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Go Ahead Eagles | Eredivisie | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1305 | 1245 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Go Ahead Eagles | Eredivisie | GK | 16 | 1440 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1313 | 1297 | 0.50 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Go Ahead Eagles | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | 1488 |
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Go Ahead Eagles | 3 | 330 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | Go Ahead Eagles | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1632 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Go Ahead Eagles | 3 | 330 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hervé Koffi Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 25 | €2.4M | €1.5M | fell |
| Harun Tekin Super Lig · 2017 | 28 | €4.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Sergio Padt Eredivisie · 2015 | 25 | €2.3M | €3.5M | rose |
| Ilya Pomazun Premier Liga · 2022 | 26 | €1.8M | €2.0M | flat |
| Arijanet Murić Super Lig · 2022 | 24 | €2.6M | €7.0M | rose |
| Jean Butez Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 27 | €4.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Rúnar Alex Rúnarsson Super Lig · 2023 | 28 | €1.5M | €450k | fell |
| Nick Marsman Eredivisie · 2017 | 27 | €1.5M | €650k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2024 | Lommel SK | Go Ahead Eagles | Free / loan | €500k |
| 31 Jul 2020 | KAA Gent | Lommel SK | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Lierse SK | KAA Gent | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Lierse SK U21 | Lierse SK | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Lierse SK U17 | Lierse SK U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Lierse SK Yth. | Lierse SK U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.