Jordan Holsgrove
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jordan Holsgrove's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-3.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.6M-5.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.9M-6.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 2.44x the positional average in the league (2835 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 47
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 48.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.3M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2835 (93% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.29
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.30
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 48 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1305
- Opponent strength
- 1335
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.9M – €6.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -20% (IQR -52% to +23%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | DM | 33 | 2835 | 93% | 1 | 8 | 0.29 | 0.30 | 1335 | 1305 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | DM | 28 | 2385 | 78% | 1 | 5 | 0.23 | 0.25 | 1350 | 1302 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | DM | 15 | 1177 | 38% | 2 | 3 | 0.38 | 0.35 | 1382 | 1279 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | FC Paços de Ferreira | Liga Portugal | CM | 24 | 1793 | 59% | 2 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.35 | 1430 | 1231 | 0.68 |
| 2020/21 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | DM | 5 | 141 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1560 | 1535 | 1.10 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 1 | 10 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Colombatto Liga Portugal · 2023 | 26 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Sofiane Hanni Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 26 | €4.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Rob Schoofs Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 27 | €1.6M | €2.2M | rose |
| Eric Bicfalvi Premier Liga · 2015 | 27 | €2.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| André André Liga Portugal · 2015 | 26 | €5.5M | €6.5M | flat |
| Deniz Türüç Super Lig · 2017 | 24 | €3.5M | €3.0M | flat |
| Emre Akbaba Super Lig · 2018 | 26 | €5.5M | €2.4M | fell |
| Ryota Morioka Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 27 | €5.0M | €2.4M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug 2024 | Olympiacos | Estoril | Free / loan | €900k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Estoril | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €900k |
| 29 Jul 2023 | Olympiacos | Estoril | Free / loan | €500k |
| 28 Jul 2023 | Paços Ferreira | Olympiacos | €520k | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Celta Vigo B | Paços Ferreira | Free / loan | €500k |
| 10 Sept 2020 | Reading | Celta Vigo B | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Atl. Baleares | Reading | Free / loan | €200k |
| 27 Aug 2019 | Reading | Atl. Baleares | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Reading U23 | Reading | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Reading U18 | Reading U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.