Maksim Petrov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Maksim Petrov's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-3.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.4M-4.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-4.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.12x the positional average in the league (2063 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 68
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 37.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.1M vs market €2.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2063 (76% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.48
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.45
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 38 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1326
- Opponent strength
- 1333
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €4.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -2% (IQR -54% to +51%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Baltika | Premier Liga | AM | 26 | 2063 | 76% | 7 | 4 | 0.48 | 0.45 | 1333 | 1326 | 0.56 |
| 2022/23 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | RW | 1 | 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 1280 | 1399 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | LW | 14 | 558 | 21% | 0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.29 | 1331 | 1344 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Baltika | 3 | 72 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 2 | 98 | 0 | 0 | 1479 |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Balikwisha Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 24 | €4.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Matus Bero Eredivisie · 2021 | 26 | €1.6M | €2.3M | rose |
| Rob Schoofs Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 26 | €1.4M | €2.5M | rose |
| Kristoffer Olsson Premier Liga · 2021 | 26 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Arno Verschueren Eredivisie · 2024 | 27 | €2.7M | €700k | fell |
| Marko Jevtovic Super Lig · 2019 | 26 | €1.2M | €2.1M | rose |
| Tarkan Serbest Super Lig · 2019 | 25 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
| Aron Dønnum Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 25 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jan 2025 | Neftekhimik | Baltika | €250k | €450k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Loko Moscow | Neftekhimik | €30k | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Alania Vl. | Loko Moscow | Free / loan | €600k |
| 29 Aug 2022 | Loko Moscow | Alania Vl. | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Sept 2021 | Loko-Kazanka M. | Loko Moscow | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Loko Moscow II | Loko-Kazanka M. | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Ak. Loko U17 | Loko Moscow II | Unknown | €175k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.