Giannis Kotsiras

33 yrs · Right-back · Greece
Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos · Super League 1 · Foot: right · Height: 183 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€450k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€98k – €449k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€276k – €1.1M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€137k – €405k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€173k – €966k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€98k – €449k
Model value (performance-implied)€276k – €1.1M
Projected value (24 months)€137k – €405k
Dashed line: current market value (€450k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Giannis Kotsiras's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceAverage37.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable33.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €245k vs market €450k
Expected appreciationVery low-39% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €800k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
608 (26% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.06
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
38 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.42 (rank 16)
Team strength (Elo)
1465
Opponent strength
1203
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€137k – €405k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -55% to -22%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Small sample: 608 league minutes last season.
  • ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
25 (DEF)
Relative output kept
55%–230%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
68%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Panathinaikos Athlitikos OmilosSuper League 1RB1160826%000.000.06120314650.43
2024/25Panathinaikos Athlitikos OmilosSuper League 1RB742018%000.000.06124714020.35
2023/24Panathinaikos Athlitikos OmilosSuper League 1RB22155666%030.170.14127614530.42
2022/23Panathinaikos Athlitikos OmilosSuper League 1RB17121652%000.000.04121914140.37
2021/22Panathinaikos Athlitikos OmilosSuper League 1RB16118150%000.000.05125013480.39
2020/21A.G.S Asteras TripolisSuper League 1RB23186980%020.100.13128812830.39
2019/20A.G.S Asteras TripolisSuper League 1RB23185879%000.000.06131912450.46
2018/19A.G.S Asteras TripolisSuper League 1RB26206977%020.090.12128212570.43
2017/18A.G.S Asteras TripolisSuper League 1RB18127147%130.280.28130913320.48
2016/17A.G.S Asteras TripolisSuper League 1RB935413%020.510.28131612170.44

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeaguePanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos6369011402
2025/26Uefa Europa League QualifyingPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos4341001372
2025/26Kypello ElladasPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos432000—
2025/26Uefa Champions League QualifyingPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos295001463
2024/25Kypello ElladasPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos327000—
2024/25Uefa Europa League QualifyingPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos3221011446
2024/25Uefa Conference League QualifyingPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos2128001531
2023/24Kypello ElladasPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos762200—
2023/24Uefa Champions League QualifyingPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos2180001388
2023/24Uefa Europa LeaguePanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos3179011520
2022/23Uefa Conference League QualifyingPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos2180001557
2022/23Kypello ElladasPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos310701—
2021/22Kypello ElladasPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos763002—
2020/21Kypello ElladasA.G.S Asteras Tripolis19000—
2019/20Kypello ElladasA.G.S Asteras Tripolis324000—
2018/19Kypello ElladasA.G.S Asteras Tripolis872001—
2018/19Uefa Europa League QualifyingA.G.S Asteras Tripolis2180001328
2017/18Kypello ElladasA.G.S Asteras Tripolis214600—
2016/17Kypello ElladasA.G.S Asteras Tripolis536711—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Sergey Petrov
Premier Liga · 2024
33€500k€250kfell
Daniel Høegh
Superliga · 2022
31€600k€300kfell
Bruno Godeau
Jupiler Pro League · 2022
30€600k€600kflat
İsmail Köybaşı
Super Lig · 2022
33€200k€50kfell
Simon Poulsen
Superliga · 2017
33€350k€250kfell
Lindsay Rose
Super League 1 · 2024
32€250k€125kfell
Emilio Izaguirre
Scottish Premiership · 2019
33€1.0M€325kfell
Yohan Mollo
Super League 1 · 2021
32€350k€350kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2021Asteras TripoliPanathinaikos€250k€600k
1 Jul 2016PanarkadikosAsteras TripoliFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2014AO FalesiasPanarkadikosFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2011D. MegalopolisAO FalesiasFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.