Santiago Bueno
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Santiago Bueno's performance-implied value at EUR 8.9M-18.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.6M-14.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.6M-10.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 22
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 83.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €10.1M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2553 (75% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 84 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1425
- Opponent strength
- 1590
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.6M – €10.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 25 pts; team strength down (-77 Elo); relative output up 396% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -41% (IQR -57% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | CB | 29 | 2553 | 75% | 3 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 1590 | 1425 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | CB | 29 | 1682 | 49% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1586 | 1501 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | CB | 12 | 820 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1607 | 1467 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Girona FC | Laliga | CB | 34 | 3012 | 88% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1513 | 1458 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3 | 270 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3 | 255 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Girona FC | 2 | 107 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Nissen Kristensen Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €13.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Jannik Vestergaard Premier League · 2021 | 29 | €18.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Jack Stephens Premier League · 2020 | 26 | €5.5M | €7.0M | rose |
| Romain Perraud Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €12.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Chico Flores Premier League · 2014 | 27 | €6.5M | €4.5M | fell |
| Dedryck Boyata Bundesliga · 2020 | 30 | €8.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Kenny Tete Premier League · 2023 | 28 | €15.0M | €13.0M | flat |
| Winston Reid Premier League · 2017 | 29 | €10.0M | €5.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug 2023 | Girona | Wolves | €12.0M | €8.0M |
| 19 Aug 2019 | Barcelona B | Girona | Free / loan | €250k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | CF Peralada | Barcelona B | Free / loan | €250k |
| 24 Jan 2018 | Barcelona B | CF Peralada | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Barça U19 | Barcelona B | Unknown | €200k |
| 31 Jan 2017 | CA Peñarol U19 | Barça U19 | €1.0M | €100k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.