Gaizka Larrazabal
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gaizka Larrazabal's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-2.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-4.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.8M-4.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.39x the positional average in the league (2855 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 56
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 40.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.6M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2855 (93% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.28
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.31
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 41 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1225
- Opponent strength
- 1326
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.8M – €4.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 20 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -36% (IQR -56% to -21%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Casa Pia AC | Liga Portugal | RM | 33 | 2855 | 93% | 5 | 4 | 0.28 | 0.31 | 1326 | 1225 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Casa Pia AC | Liga Portugal | RM | 32 | 2252 | 74% | 2 | 4 | 0.24 | 0.30 | 1363 | 1276 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Casa Pia AC | Liga Portugal | RM | 32 | 2521 | 82% | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 1381 | 1282 | 0.58 |
| 2019/20 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | RW | 10 | 244 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 1489 | 1543 | 1.16 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 82 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafał Augustyniak Premier Liga · 2022 | 29 | €1.7M | €750k | fell |
| Stef Peeters Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 29 | €1.4M | €900k | fell |
| Kerim Mrabti Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 28 | €3.5M | €2.2M | fell |
| Mateusz Klich Eredivisie · 2017 | 27 | €2.3M | €2.5M | flat |
| Aytaç Kara Super Lig · 2019 | 26 | €1.4M | €2.3M | rose |
| Haris Hajradinovic Super Lig · 2024 | 30 | €2.7M | €1.2M | fell |
| Ibrahima Seck Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 29 | €2.0M | €1.4M | fell |
| Marco Ilaimaharitra Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 28 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2023 | Real Zaragoza | Casa Pia | Free / loan | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | SD Amorebieta | Real Zaragoza | Free / loan | €800k |
| 24 Aug 2021 | Real Zaragoza | SD Amorebieta | Free / loan | €800k |
| 2 Oct 2020 | Athletic Club | Real Zaragoza | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Bilbao Athletic | Athletic Club | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Zamudio SD | Bilbao Athletic | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Danok Bat U19 | Zamudio SD | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.