
Liam Scales
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Liam Scales's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-8.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.5M-5.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.3M-5.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 66
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 70.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.2M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2648 (89% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 71 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1406
- Opponent strength
- 1196
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.3M – €5.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 34 pts; team strength down (-106 Elo); relative output down 37% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -19% (IQR -40% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 16 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 90%–275%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 75%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 32 | 2648 | 89% | 0 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 1196 | 1406 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 22 | 1627 | 55% | 2 | 3 | 0.28 | 0.09 | 1213 | 1512 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 29 | 2610 | 88% | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 1225 | 1511 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 27 | 2312 | 78% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1282 | 1284 | 0.40 |
| 2021/22 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | LB | 5 | 326 | 11% | 1 | 1 | 0.55 | 0.15 | 1224 | 1575 | 0.50 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Celtic FC | 9 | 810 | 1 | 0 | 1504 |
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 3 | 262 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1435 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Celtic FC | 6 | 370 | 1 | 0 | 1625 |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 4 | 307 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Celtic FC | 6 | 540 | 0 | 1 | 1625 |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 5 | 480 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Shamrock Rovers | 4 | 360 | 1 | 2 | 1225 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Shamrock Rovers | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1368 |
| 2021/22 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 2 | 180 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Celtic FC | 3 | 105 | 0 | 0 | 1574 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgar Ié Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €4.8M | €2.4M | fell |
| Sverrir Ingi Ingason Super League 1 · 2023 | 30 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Harold Moukoudi Super League 1 · 2023 | 26 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Andreas Maxsø Superliga · 2021 | 27 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Greg Taylor Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 27 | €7.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Vitor Hugo Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €5.5M | €4.5M | flat |
| Oleksandr Tymchyk Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Connor Goldson Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 32 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May 2023 | Aberdeen FC | Celtic | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Celtic | Aberdeen FC | Free / loan | €600k |
| 27 Aug 2021 | Shamrock Rovers | Celtic | €600k | €100k |
| 1 Jan 2020 | UCD | Shamrock Rovers | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | UCD Academy | UCD | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Arklow Town | UCD Academy | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.