
Thijs Oosting
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Thijs Oosting's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.86x the positional average in the league (2654 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 87
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 24.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €565k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2654 (87% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.30
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.34
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 25 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1186
- Opponent strength
- 1302
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €512k – €1.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 61 pts; changed club.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +4% (IQR -19% to +35%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | AM | 34 | 2654 | 87% | 6 | 3 | 0.31 | 0.34 | 1302 | 1186 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | AM | 22 | 776 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.35 | 1284 | 1197 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Willem II Tilburg | Eredivisie | AM | 3 | 270 | 9% | 2 | 0 | 0.67 | 0.73 | 1413 | 1237 | 0.60 |
| 2021/22 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | LB | 3 | 130 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1199 | 1496 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | RKC Waalwijk | Eredivisie | ST | 17 | 1176 | 38% | 4 | 3 | 0.54 | 0.68 | 1354 | 1178 | 0.56 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | PEC Zwolle | 2 | 180 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | FC Groningen | 2 | 162 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1529 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolai Poulsen Superliga · 2019 | 26 | €600k | €800k | rose |
| Mustafa Eskihellaç Super Lig · 2024 | 27 | €1.4M | €4.0M | rose |
| Ivan Trickovski Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 27 | €900k | €750k | flat |
| Ibrahim Kane Premier Liga · 2024 | 24 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Drey Wright Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 28 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Charilaos Charisis Super League 1 · 2020 | 25 | €550k | €600k | flat |
| Melker Hallberg Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 28 | €500k | €700k | rose |
| Chris Cadden Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 26 | €650k | €650k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | FC Groningen | PEC Zwolle | €750k | €900k |
| 30 Jun 2026 | PEC Zwolle | FC Groningen | Free / loan | €900k |
| 17 Jul 2025 | FC Groningen | PEC Zwolle | Free / loan | €500k |
| 2 Jul 2024 | Willem II | FC Groningen | €1.0M | €700k |
| 31 Jan 2022 | AZ Alkmaar | Willem II | €1.0M | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | RKC Waalwijk | AZ Alkmaar | Free / loan | €600k |
| 22 Jan 2021 | AZ Alkmaar | RKC Waalwijk | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | AZ Alkmaar U21 | AZ Alkmaar | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | AZ U19 | AZ Alkmaar U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | AZ U17 | AZ U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Emmen U17 | AZ U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | FC Emmen Youth | Emmen U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Emmen Yth. | FC Emmen Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.