Thijs Oosting

26 yrs · Attacking midfielder (also LB, ST) · Netherlands
PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie · Foot: left · Height: 176 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€900k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€312k – €899k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€518k – €981k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€512k – €1.4M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€381k – €669k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€312k – €899k
Model value (performance-implied)€518k – €981k
Projected value (24 months)€512k – €1.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€900k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Thijs Oosting's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.86x the positional average in the league (2654 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 87

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average24.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.2 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €565k vs market €900k
Expected appreciationNeutral-4% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €900k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2654 (87% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.30
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.34
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
25 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.43 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1186
Opponent strength
1302
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€512k – €1.4M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 61 pts; changed club.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +4% (IQR -19% to +35%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
53 (MID)
Relative output kept
76%–148%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
68%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26PEC ZwolleEredivisieAM34265487%630.310.34130211860.43
2024/25FC GroningenEredivisieAM2277625%100.120.35128411970.50
2021/22Willem II TilburgEredivisieAM32709%200.670.73141312370.60
2021/22AZ AlkmaarEredivisieLB31304%000.000.06119914960.60
2020/21RKC WaalwijkEredivisieST17117638%430.540.68135411780.56

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Knvb BekerPEC Zwolle218021—
2024/25Knvb BekerFC Groningen216230—
2021/22Uefa Europa League QualifyingAZ Alkmaar190001529

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Nicolai Poulsen
Superliga · 2019
26€600k€800krose
Mustafa Eskihellaç
Super Lig · 2024
27€1.4M€4.0Mrose
Ivan Trickovski
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
27€900k€750kflat
Ibrahim Kane
Premier Liga · 2024
24€800k€600kfell
Drey Wright
Scottish Premiership · 2023
28€500k€200kfell
Charilaos Charisis
Super League 1 · 2020
25€550k€600kflat
Melker Hallberg
Scottish Premiership · 2023
28€500k€700krose
Chris Cadden
Scottish Premiership · 2022
26€650k€650kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026FC GroningenPEC Zwolle€750k€900k
30 Jun 2026PEC ZwolleFC GroningenFree / loan€900k
17 Jul 2025FC GroningenPEC ZwolleFree / loan€500k
2 Jul 2024Willem IIFC Groningen€1.0M€700k
31 Jan 2022AZ AlkmaarWillem II€1.0M€600k
30 Jun 2021RKC WaalwijkAZ AlkmaarFree / loan€600k
22 Jan 2021AZ AlkmaarRKC WaalwijkFree / loan€600k
1 Jul 2020AZ Alkmaar U21AZ AlkmaarUnknown€400k
1 Jul 2019AZ U19AZ Alkmaar U21UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017AZ U17AZ U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2016Emmen U17AZ U17Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2015FC Emmen YouthEmmen U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Emmen Yth.FC Emmen YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Thijs Oosting · MoneyballAI