Oleg Bilyk
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Oleg Bilyk's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 93
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 10.2th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €132k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2340 (87% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 10 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1091
- Opponent strength
- 1178
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €209k – €445k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR +0% to +16%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Epicentr Kamyanets-Podilskyi | Premier Liga | GK | 26 | 2340 | 87% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1178 | 1091 | 0.25 |
| 2023/24 | Chornomorets Odesa | Premier Liga | GK | 2 | 180 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1159 | 1113 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | FC Oleksandriya | Premier Liga | GK | 11 | 990 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1275 | 1284 | 0.38 |
| 2022/23 | Ingulets Petrove | Premier Liga | GK | 8 | 639 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1302 | 1151 | 0.38 |
| 2021/22 | FC Oleksandriya | Premier Liga | GK | 18 | 1620 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1319 | 1297 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | FC Oleksandriya | Premier Liga | GK | 7 | 630 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1285 | 1285 | 0.49 |
| 2019/20 | FC Oleksandriya | Premier Liga | GK | 4 | 353 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1310 | 1356 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020/21 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Oleksandriya | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Oleksandriya | 2 | 240 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oleg Mozil Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Shamal George Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 26 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Dimitar Mitov Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 27 | €500k | €800k | rose |
| Lefteris Choutesiotis Super League 1 · 2023 | 29 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Remi Matthews Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 29 | €350k | €400k | flat |
| Liam Kelly Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 28 | €800k | €800k | flat |
| Gergely Nagy Super League 1 · 2021 | 27 | €250k | €300k | rose |
| Gary Woods Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 29 | €300k | €300k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2024 | Chornomorets | Epicentr | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Ingulets | Chornomorets | Free / loan | €400k |
| 19 Jan 2023 | FC Oleksandriya | Ingulets | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Oleksandriya II | FC Oleksandriya | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Skala Stryi | Oleksandriya II | Unknown | €25k |
| 12 Jul 2016 | Skala Stryi U19 | Skala Stryi | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.