Rigoberto Rivas
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rigoberto Rivas's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.72x the positional average in the league (1176 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 77
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 4.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €402k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1176 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.28
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 4 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1188
- Opponent strength
- 1263
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €480k – €1.2M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+81 Elo); relative output down 31% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -5% (IQR -43% to +26%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1176 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kocaelispor | Super Lig | RW | 22 | 1176 | 38% | 1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.28 | 1263 | 1188 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Hatayspor | Super Lig | RW | 17 | 1081 | 33% | 1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.45 | 1280 | 1107 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Hatayspor | Super Lig | LW | 29 | 2434 | 71% | 5 | 4 | 0.33 | 0.53 | 1323 | 1163 | 0.45 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | Ternana Calcio | 2 | 135 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anastasios Chatzigiovanis Super Lig · 2024 | 27 | €1.8M | €900k | fell |
| Ramazan Civelek Super Lig · 2022 | 26 | €1.1M | €1.0M | flat |
| Aminu Umar Super Lig · 2022 | 27 | €500k | €175k | fell |
| Christian Bassogog Super Lig · 2024 | 29 | €1.5M | €900k | fell |
| Jordan Jones Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 29 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Gökhan Sazdağı Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €450k | €1.0M | rose |
| Issam Jebali Superliga · 2020 | 29 | €475k | €500k | flat |
| Guilherme Schettine Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €700k | €1.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Feb 2025 | Hatayspor | Kocaelispor | Unknown | €1.6M |
| 7 Sept 2023 | Reggio Calabria | Hatayspor | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Inter | Reggina | €550k | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Reggina | Inter | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 2 Sept 2019 | Inter | Reggina | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Ternana | Inter | Free / loan | €200k |
| 21 Jul 2018 | Inter | Ternana | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Brescia | Inter | Free / loan | €400k |
| 31 Aug 2017 | Inter U19 | Brescia | Free / loan | €350k |
| 3 Jul 2017 | Prato Youth | Inter U19 | €300k | €350k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Inter U19 | Prato Youth | Free / loan | €350k |
| 30 Aug 2016 | Prato Youth | Inter U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Sestese Jun. | Prato Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.