David Affengruber
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates David Affengruber's performance-implied value at EUR 2.6M-7.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.3M-23.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 11.4M-33.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 84
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 63.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €12.4M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2953 (86% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 64 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1389
- Opponent strength
- 1486
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €11.4M – €33.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +6% (IQR -12% to +54%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Elche CF | Laliga | CB | 36 | 2953 | 86% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 1486 | 1389 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Elche CF | 3 | 143 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Keane Premier League · 2017 | 24 | €18.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Philipp Max Bundesliga · 2019 | 26 | €17.0M | €16.0M | flat |
| Fran García Laliga · 2023 | 24 | €12.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Mathías Olivera Laliga · 2022 | 25 | €15.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Nikola Milenković Serie A · 2021 | 24 | €25.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Andrea Ranocchia Serie A · 2013 | 25 | €17.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Hiroki Ito Bundesliga · 2023 | 24 | €10.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Martin Hinteregger Bundesliga · 2019 | 27 | €16.0M | €18.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 2024 | Sturm Graz | Elche CF | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Salzburg | Sturm Graz | €400k | €1.0M |
| 1 Jan 2021 | FC Liefering | Salzburg | Unknown | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | AKA Salzb. U18 | FC Liefering | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | AKA Salzb. U16 | AKA Salzb. U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | AKA Salzb. U15 | AKA Salzb. U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Salzburg Youth | AKA Salzb. U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2013 | Wieselburg J. | Salzburg Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.