Valentin Rongier
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Valentin Rongier's performance-implied value at EUR 4.5M-7.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.1M-7.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.0M-4.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.01x the positional average in the league (2745 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 14
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 84.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €4.5M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -60% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2745 (90% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.23
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 85 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1520
- Opponent strength
- 1459
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.0M – €4.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 39 pts; changed club; role change DM -> CM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -66% (IQR -71% to -59%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | CM | 31 | 2745 | 90% | 2 | 5 | 0.23 | 0.22 | 1459 | 1520 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | DM | 25 | 1564 | 51% | 3 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.15 | 1473 | 1557 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | DM | 10 | 853 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1459 | 1534 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | DM | 36 | 3036 | 89% | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 1446 | 1568 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | RB | 32 | 2196 | 64% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1438 | 1591 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CM | 26 | 1894 | 55% | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 1437 | 1455 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CM | 23 | 1793 | 71% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 1428 | 1539 | 0.82 |
| 2019/20 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | AM | 3 | 270 | 11% | 0 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.44 | 1452 | 1414 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | CM | 36 | 3228 | 94% | 4 | 5 | 0.25 | 0.27 | 1458 | 1416 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | AM | 32 | 2359 | 69% | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.20 | 1469 | 1413 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | DM | 31 | 2163 | 63% | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 1421 | 1423 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | DM | 11 | 741 | 22% | 1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 1452 | 1356 | 0.78 |
| 2014/15 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | CM | 6 | 321 | 9% | 0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.22 | 1375 | 1361 | 0.80 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Marseille | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1537 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Olympique Marseille | 2 | 143 | 0 | 0 | 1441 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Marseille | 6 | 471 | 0 | 0 | 1638 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Marseille | 4 | 345 | 0 | 0 | 1486 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Marseille | 6 | 442 | 0 | 0 | 1633 |
| 2020/21 | Trophee Des Champions | Olympique Marseille | 1 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1771 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borja Valero Serie A · 2016 | 31 | €14.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Felipe Melo Super Lig · 2014 | 31 | €10.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Rio Mavuba Ligue 1 · 2014 | 30 | €7.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Alberto Aquilani Serie A · 2014 | 30 | €9.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Sebastian Rudy Bundesliga · 2020 | 30 | €5.2M | €1.5M | fell |
| João Moutinho Ligue 1 · 2018 | 32 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Rémy Cabella Ligue 1 · 2023 | 33 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Jordan Veretout Ligue 1 · 2023 | 30 | €16.0M | €4.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jul 2025 | Marseille | Stade Rennais | €5.5M | €9.0M |
| 3 Sept 2019 | FC Nantes | Marseille | €13.0M | €15.0M |
| 1 Jul 2014 | FC Nantes B | FC Nantes | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | FC Nantes U19 | FC Nantes B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | FC Nantes U17 | FC Nantes U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | FC Nantes Yth. | FC Nantes U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.