Esequiel Barco
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Esequiel Barco's performance-implied value at EUR 2.2M-8.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.5M-13.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.5M-18.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.98x the positional average in the league (2486 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 82
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 69.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €7.3M vs market €16.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2486 (92% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.54
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.39
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 69 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1443
- Opponent strength
- 1340
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.5M – €18.1M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 25% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -47% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | AM | 29 | 2486 | 92% | 8 | 7 | 0.54 | 0.39 | 1340 | 1443 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | AM | 27 | 2377 | 88% | 12 | 7 | 0.72 | 0.51 | 1309 | 1470 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 6 | 449 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 8 | 464 | 1 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mário Fernandes Premier Liga · 2020 | 30 | €24.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Alejandro Pozuelo Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 27 | €6.5M | €6.5M | flat |
| Wendel Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Ramiz Zerrouki Eredivisie · 2023 | 25 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Sofiane Hanni Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 28 | €8.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Edin Visca Super Lig · 2017 | 27 | €8.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Hans Vanaken Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 30 | €16.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Bryan Heynen Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 26 | €11.0M | €11.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2024 | River Plate | Spartak Moscow | €14.0M | €9.0M |
| 1 Jan 2024 | Atlanta | River Plate | €10.0M | €9.0M |
| 31 Dec 2023 | River Plate | Atlanta | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 29 Jan 2022 | Atlanta | River Plate | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 19 Jan 2018 | Independiente | Atlanta | €12.3M | €6.5M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Indep'te U20 | Independiente | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 3 Apr 2015 | J. Griffa U20 | Indep'te U20 | €180k | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.