Wendel
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Wendel's performance-implied value at EUR 5.1M-15.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.2M-14.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.0M-13.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.61x the positional average in the league (2294 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 24
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 81.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €9.7M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -48% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2294 (85% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 82 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1597
- Opponent strength
- 1321
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.0M – €13.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts; relative output down 54% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -43% to -20%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | CM | 27 | 2294 | 85% | 2 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.13 | 1321 | 1597 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | CM | 22 | 1796 | 67% | 1 | 10 | 0.55 | 0.28 | 1296 | 1558 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | CM | 27 | 2310 | 86% | 4 | 9 | 0.51 | 0.25 | 1315 | 1491 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | CM | 25 | 2069 | 77% | 8 | 3 | 0.48 | 0.21 | 1305 | 1582 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | CM | 25 | 1991 | 74% | 3 | 3 | 0.27 | 0.13 | 1337 | 1530 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | AM | 15 | 1113 | 41% | 2 | 3 | 0.40 | 0.28 | 1350 | 1544 | 0.55 |
| 2020/21 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | CM | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1284 | 1617 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | CM | 28 | 2292 | 75% | 3 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.18 | 1379 | 1492 | 0.59 |
| 2018/19 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | CM | 21 | 1653 | 54% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 1361 | 1634 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | CM | 4 | 114 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1274 | 1605 | 0.64 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 3 | 200 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 4 | 197 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 75 | 1 | 2 | 1405 |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 8 | 584 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 7 | 472 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 77 | 1 | 0 | 1359 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 6 | 485 | 1 | 0 | 1662 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | 1596 |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 61 | 0 | 1 | 1457 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Sporting CP | 2 | 176 | 0 | 0 | 1476 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 4 | 139 | 0 | 0 | 1672 |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 6 | 496 | 0 | 1 | 1533 |
| 2019/20 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1683 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 3 | 200 | 0 | 3 | 1498 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Torreira Super Lig · 2024 | 28 | €15.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Danilo Pereira Liga Portugal · 2020 | 29 | €24.0M | €14.0M | fell |
| Hidemasa Morita Liga Portugal · 2024 | 29 | €15.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Mats Rits Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 28 | €5.5M | €5.0M | flat |
| Glen Kamara Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 27 | €7.5M | €6.0M | fell |
| Marcos Acuña Liga Portugal · 2018 | 27 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Héctor Herrera Liga Portugal · 2019 | 29 | €22.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Claudinho Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €18.0M | €13.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Oct 2020 | Sporting | Zenit S-Pb | €20.3M | €12.0M |
| 6 Jan 2018 | Fluminense | Sporting | €7.5M | €7.5M |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Fluminense U20 | Fluminense | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.