Nicolò Cambiaghi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nicolò Cambiaghi's performance-implied value at EUR 3.7M-15.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.0M-19.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.9M-19.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.94x the positional average in the league (1521 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 18
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 65th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €14.4M vs market €14.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1521 (45% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.41
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.38
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 65 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1523
- Opponent strength
- 1518
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.9M – €19.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 27 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -3% (IQR -45% to +54%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1521 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | LW | 28 | 1521 | 44% | 3 | 4 | 0.41 | 0.38 | 1518 | 1523 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | LW | 18 | 611 | 18% | 1 | 4 | 0.74 | 0.44 | 1476 | 1559 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | FC Empoli | Serie A | SS | 37 | 2563 | 75% | 1 | 5 | 0.21 | 0.47 | 1507 | 1388 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | FC Empoli | Serie A | LW | 28 | 1280 | 37% | 6 | 2 | 0.56 | 0.60 | 1460 | 1388 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 11 | 480 | 1 | 2 | 1475 |
| 2025/26 | Supercoppa Italiana | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 2 | 96 | 0 | 0 | 1691 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 1 | 70 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 2 | 87 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | FC Empoli | 1 | 51 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Jovetić Serie A · 2016 | 27 | €15.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Arthur Cabral Serie A · 2023 | 25 | €20.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Gonçalo Paciência Bundesliga · 2020 | 26 | €12.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Luka Jović Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €8.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Khouma Babacar Serie A · 2017 | 24 | €8.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Mario Balotelli Ligue 1 · 2017 | 27 | €15.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Jonathan Burkardt Bundesliga · 2024 | 24 | €12.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Victor Moses Premier League · 2015 | 25 | €7.5M | €18.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jul 2024 | Atalanta | Bologna | €11.0M | €7.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | FC Empoli | Atalanta | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 4 Aug 2022 | Atalanta | FC Empoli | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Pordenone | Atalanta | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 15 Jul 2021 | Atalanta U19 | Pordenone | Free / loan | €350k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Reggiana | Atalanta U19 | Free / loan | €350k |
| 19 Aug 2020 | Atalanta U19 | Reggiana | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Atalanta U17 | Atalanta U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Atalanta Youth | Atalanta U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.