Morten Hjulmand
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Morten Hjulmand's performance-implied value at EUR 6.7M-30.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 31.2M-46.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 27.3M-50.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.20x the positional average in the league (2325 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 34
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 83th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €39.0M vs market €45.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2325 (76% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.27
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 83 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1656
- Opponent strength
- 1333
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €27.3M – €50.8M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 69% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -49% to -22%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | DM | 27 | 2325 | 76% | 3 | 4 | 0.27 | 0.15 | 1333 | 1656 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | DM | 28 | 2222 | 73% | 2 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 1352 | 1610 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | DM | 30 | 2200 | 72% | 3 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.11 | 1391 | 1675 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | US Lecce | Serie A | DM | 35 | 2964 | 87% | 0 | 4 | 0.12 | 0.19 | 1479 | 1323 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 10 | 910 | 0 | 0 | 1635 |
| 2025/26 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1617 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 9 | 765 | 0 | 0 | 1622 |
| 2024/25 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 103 | 0 | 0 | 1628 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 10 | 626 | 0 | 0 | 1531 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | US Lecce | 1 | 120 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Veerman Eredivisie · 2024 | 26 | €40.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Fernandinho Premier Liga · 2013 | 28 | €32.0M | €28.0M | flat |
| Julian Weigl Liga Portugal · 2022 | 27 | €22.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Otávio Liga Portugal · 2021 | 26 | €24.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Nico Gaitán Liga Portugal · 2015 | 27 | €27.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Ibrahim Sangaré Eredivisie · 2023 | 26 | €35.0M | €24.0M | fell |
| Jesús Corona Liga Portugal · 2021 | 28 | €30.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Wendel Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €24.0M | €18.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug 2023 | Lecce | Sporting | €19.5M | €15.0M |
| 16 Jan 2021 | Admira Wacker | Lecce | €2.5M | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Copenhagen U19 | Admira Wacker | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | FCK Youth | Copenhagen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.