Nikolas Dyhr

25 yrs · Left-back (also LM) · Denmark
Randers FC · Superliga · Foot: left · Height: 179 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€2.5M
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€1.0M – €3.6M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€481k – €1.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.3M – €4.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€3.1M – €239k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.0M – €3.6M
Model value (performance-implied)€481k – €1.3M
Projected value (24 months)€1.3M – €4.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Nikolas Dyhr's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-4.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 75

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average22.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral25 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €1.7M vs market €2.5M
Expected appreciationLow-10% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.47
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1911 (97% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.14
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.12
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
22 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.47 (rank 12)
Team strength (Elo)
1278
Opponent strength
1263
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.3M – €4.1M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts; league level up (+45 Elo); relative output down 26% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +63% (IQR +1% to +81%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
24 (DEF)
Relative output kept
60%–139%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
71%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Randers FCSuperligaLB22191197%120.140.12126312780.47
2024/25Randers FCSuperligaLB19155779%030.170.15130712760.38
2023/24FC MidtjyllandSuperligaLB1331616%000.000.07124514490.48
2022/23FC MidtjyllandSuperligaLB1368935%110.260.12122913680.47
2022/23KV KortrijkJupiler Pro LeagueLB1110%000.000.19145412090.58
2021/22FC MidtjyllandSuperligaLM18115758%110.160.21125114290.45
2020/21AC HorsensSuperligaLM859830%010.150.30125611210.43
2020/21FC MidtjyllandSuperligaLB320510%010.440.11128014500.43
2019/20FC MidtjyllandSuperligaLB14121552%010.070.05126015000.41

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Oddset PokalenRanders FC13500—
2023/24Oddset PokalenFC Midtjylland320501—
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingFC Midtjylland5198001376
2022/23Oddset PokalenFC Midtjylland218000—
2022/23Uefa Champions League QualifyingFC Midtjylland4168001536
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueFC Midtjylland337001454
2021/22Oddset PokalenFC Midtjylland648802—
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueFC Midtjylland4269101529
2021/22Uefa Champions League QualifyingFC Midtjylland384001599
2020/21Oddset PokalenFC Midtjylland19000—
2019/20Oddset PokalenFC Midtjylland17000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Mats Köhlert
Eredivisie · 2024
26€2.0M€3.5Mrose
Nihad Mujakic
Super Lig · 2024
26€2.0M€1.2Mfell
Ko Itakura
Eredivisie · 2021
24€3.5M€12.0Mrose
Pawel Bochniewicz
Eredivisie · 2021
25€2.5M€3.0Mrose
Aleksandr Soldatenkov
Premier Liga · 2023
27€2.5M€4.0Mrose
Oliver Sonne
Superliga · 2024
24€2.0M€4.0Mrose
Maksim Osipenko
Premier Liga · 2021
27€3.0M€5.0Mrose
Spyros Risvanis
Super League 1 · 2019
25€1.3M€700kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2024St. Louis CITYRanders FC€373k€1.2M
31 Jan 2024MidtjyllandSt. Louis CITY€370k€1.5M
30 Jun 2023KV KortrijkMidtjyllandFree / loan€1.0M
30 Jan 2023MidtjyllandKV KortrijkFree / loan€1.5M
30 Jun 2021AC HorsensMidtjyllandFree / loan€700k
17 Jan 2021MidtjyllandAC HorsensFree / loan€700k
1 Jul 2019Midtjylland U19MidtjyllandUnknown€25k
1 Jul 2018FCM YouthMidtjylland U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2016Horsens YouthFCM YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Nikolas Dyhr · MoneyballAI