
Nikolas Dyhr
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nikolas Dyhr's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-4.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 75
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 22.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.7M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1911 (97% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 22 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1278
- Opponent strength
- 1263
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €4.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts; league level up (+45 Elo); relative output down 26% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +63% (IQR +1% to +81%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 24 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 60%–139%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 71%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Randers FC | Superliga | LB | 22 | 1911 | 97% | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 1263 | 1278 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Randers FC | Superliga | LB | 19 | 1557 | 79% | 0 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 1307 | 1276 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | LB | 13 | 316 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1245 | 1449 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | LB | 13 | 689 | 35% | 1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.12 | 1229 | 1368 | 0.47 |
| 2022/23 | KV Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League | LB | 1 | 11 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1454 | 1209 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | LM | 18 | 1157 | 58% | 1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.21 | 1251 | 1429 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | AC Horsens | Superliga | LM | 8 | 598 | 30% | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.30 | 1256 | 1121 | 0.43 |
| 2020/21 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | LB | 3 | 205 | 10% | 0 | 1 | 0.44 | 0.11 | 1280 | 1450 | 0.43 |
| 2019/20 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | LB | 14 | 1215 | 52% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 1260 | 1500 | 0.41 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Randers FC | 1 | 35 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 3 | 205 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 5 | 198 | 0 | 0 | 1376 |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 4 | 168 | 0 | 0 | 1536 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | FC Midtjylland | 3 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1454 |
| 2021/22 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 6 | 488 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | FC Midtjylland | 4 | 269 | 1 | 0 | 1529 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 3 | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1599 |
| 2020/21 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 70 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mats Köhlert Eredivisie · 2024 | 26 | €2.0M | €3.5M | rose |
| Nihad Mujakic Super Lig · 2024 | 26 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Ko Itakura Eredivisie · 2021 | 24 | €3.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Pawel Bochniewicz Eredivisie · 2021 | 25 | €2.5M | €3.0M | rose |
| Aleksandr Soldatenkov Premier Liga · 2023 | 27 | €2.5M | €4.0M | rose |
| Oliver Sonne Superliga · 2024 | 24 | €2.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Maksim Osipenko Premier Liga · 2021 | 27 | €3.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Spyros Risvanis Super League 1 · 2019 | 25 | €1.3M | €700k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | St. Louis CITY | Randers FC | €373k | €1.2M |
| 31 Jan 2024 | Midtjylland | St. Louis CITY | €370k | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | KV Kortrijk | Midtjylland | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jan 2023 | Midtjylland | KV Kortrijk | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | AC Horsens | Midtjylland | Free / loan | €700k |
| 17 Jan 2021 | Midtjylland | AC Horsens | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Midtjylland U19 | Midtjylland | Unknown | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | FCM Youth | Midtjylland U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Horsens Youth | FCM Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.