Oliver Villadsen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Oliver Villadsen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 80
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 16.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €834k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1045 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 16 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1336
- Opponent strength
- 1259
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €674k – €2.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +37% (IQR -19% to +100%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1045 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 24 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 60%–139%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 71%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | RB | 21 | 1045 | 53% | 0 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 1259 | 1336 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | RB | 4 | 249 | 13% | 0 | 3 | 1.08 | 0.21 | 1289 | 1341 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | RB | 20 | 1663 | 84% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 1274 | 1444 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | RB | 21 | 1839 | 93% | 0 | 4 | 0.20 | 0.15 | 1297 | 1352 | 0.47 |
| 2021/22 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | RM | 22 | 1760 | 89% | 5 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 1269 | 1231 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | RB | 13 | 524 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1267 | 1308 | 0.43 |
| 2019/20 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | RB | 5 | 141 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1277 | 1329 | 0.41 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Bröndby IF | 5 | 273 | 0 | 0 | 1286 |
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Bröndby IF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Nuremberg | 2 | 202 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 5 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Nordsjaelland | 3 | 270 | 1 | 0 | 1429 |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 5 | 365 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 2 | 175 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maxime Chanot Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 25 | €800k | €1.5M | rose |
| Maksim Nenakhov Premier Liga · 2023 | 25 | €1.5M | €3.0M | rose |
| Roderick Miranda Liga Portugal · 2016 | 25 | €750k | €2.5M | rose |
| Lucas Woudenberg Eredivisie · 2018 | 24 | €650k | €650k | flat |
| Kevin Diks Superliga · 2021 | 25 | €1.5M | €3.0M | rose |
| Miguel Nóbrega Liga Portugal · 2024 | 24 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Yoëll van Nieff Eredivisie · 2017 | 24 | €750k | €650k | flat |
| Thibault Vlietinck Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 24 | €700k | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jul 2025 | 1.FC Nuremberg | Bröndby IF | €600k | €1.5M |
| 12 Aug 2024 | Nordsjaelland | 1.FC Nuremberg | €500k | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Nordsjaell. U19 | Nordsjaelland | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jan 2018 | FCN Youth | Nordsjaell. U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.