Mattéo Guendouzi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mattéo Guendouzi's performance-implied value at EUR 12.6M-34.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 15.9M-26.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 10.4M-25.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.61x the positional average in the league (2750 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 13
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 89.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €22.1M vs market €27.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -42% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2750 (80% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 90 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1501
- Opponent strength
- 1505
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €10.4M – €25.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 15 pts; team strength down (-106 Elo); league level down (-123 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +2% (IQR -25% to +25%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | CM | 16 | 1430 | 42% | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 1505 | 1522 | 0.93 |
| 2025/26 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | CM | 15 | 1320 | 43% | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 1261 | 1477 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | CM | 37 | 3275 | 96% | 1 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 1487 | 1606 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | CM | 33 | 2371 | 69% | 2 | 3 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 1475 | 1580 | 0.98 |
| 2023/24 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CM | 2 | 17 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1418 | 1534 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | AM | 33 | 2110 | 62% | 2 | 4 | 0.26 | 0.21 | 1451 | 1568 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CM | 38 | 3154 | 92% | 4 | 8 | 0.34 | 0.28 | 1426 | 1591 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | CM | 24 | 1818 | 59% | 2 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 1514 | 1446 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | CM | 24 | 1748 | 51% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 1593 | 1641 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | CM | 33 | 2142 | 63% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1522 | 1733 | 1.22 |
| 2016/17 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | CM | 8 | 417 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1427 | 1362 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Fenerbahce | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1561 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 9 | 753 | 0 | 2 | 1580 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 2 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 8 | 492 | 0 | 1 | 1693 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 4 | 355 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Olympique Marseille | 2 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 1442 |
| 2023/24 | Supercoppa Italiana | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 1802 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Marseille | 6 | 419 | 2 | 0 | 1656 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Marseille | 6 | 495 | 0 | 0 | 1447 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 6 | 336 | 0 | 0 | 1523 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 11 | 662 | 1 | 0 | 1515 |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 26 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Carvalho Liga Portugal · 2018 | 26 | €25.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Valentin Rongier Ligue 1 · 2020 | 26 | €16.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Remo Freuler Serie A · 2019 | 27 | €20.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Mário Fernandes Premier Liga · 2018 | 28 | €16.0M | €24.0M | rose |
| Fredrik Midtsjø Eredivisie · 2020 | 27 | €8.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Maxime Gonalons Ligue 1 · 2014 | 25 | €14.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Piotr Zielinski Serie A · 2020 | 26 | €32.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Manuel Lazzari Serie A · 2020 | 27 | €14.5M | €15.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Jan 2026 | Lazio | Fenerbahçe | €28.0M | €28.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Marseille | Lazio | €14.8M | €25.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Lazio | Marseille | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 31 Aug 2023 | Marseille | Lazio | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Arsenal | Marseille | €11.0M | €25.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Marseille | Arsenal | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 6 Jul 2021 | Arsenal | Marseille | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Hertha BSC | Arsenal | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Arsenal | Hertha BSC | Free / loan | €32.0M |
| 11 Jul 2018 | FC Lorient | Arsenal | €8.0M | €2.5M |
| 23 Sept 2016 | Lorient B | FC Lorient | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2016 | FC Lorient U17 | Lorient B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Paris SG U17 | FC Lorient U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | PSG Youth | Paris SG U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.