Arnau Tenas
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Arnau Tenas's performance-implied value at EUR 1.5M-6.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.4M-6.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.9M-6.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 43
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 56.1th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.9M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 900 (26% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 56 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1544
- Opponent strength
- 1493
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.9M – €6.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +129% (IQR +35% to +261%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 900 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | GK | 10 | 900 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1493 | 1544 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 1 | 1.00 | 0.03 | 1244 | 1812 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | GK | 6 | 528 | 17% | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.04 | 1452 | 1700 | 0.87 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Villarreal CF | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1570 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Robles Premier League · 2015 | 25 | €3.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Wuilker Fariñez Ligue 1 · 2022 | 24 | €4.0M | €700k | fell |
| Finn Dahmen Bundesliga · 2023 | 25 | €2.5M | €9.0M | rose |
| Pierluigi Gollini Serie A · 2018 | 23 | €3.5M | €13.0M | rose |
| David Soria Laliga · 2018 | 25 | €4.0M | €14.5M | rose |
| Cenk Gönen Super Lig · 2013 | 25 | €2.8M | €2.0M | fell |
| Julen Agirrezabala Laliga · 2023 | 23 | €5.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Etrit Berisha Serie A · 2016 | 27 | €4.0M | €7.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 2025 | PSG | Villarreal | €2.5M | €3.0M |
| 30 Jul 2023 | Barça Atlètic | PSG | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Barça U19 | Barcelona B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Barça U18 | Barça U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Barça U16 | Barça U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Barça Youth | Barça U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.