Julen Agirrezabala
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Julen Agirrezabala's performance-implied value at EUR 2.5M-9.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.5M-9.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.5M-11.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 76
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 62th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €4.7M vs market €9.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1620 (47% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 62 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1497
- Opponent strength
- 1502
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.5M – €11.6M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-82 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -13% to +53%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1620 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Valencia CF | Laliga | GK | 18 | 1620 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1502 | 1496 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | GK | 14 | 1207 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1496 | 1578 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | GK | 4 | 236 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1597 | 1583 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | GK | 8 | 675 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1509 | 1487 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | GK | 4 | 360 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1650 | 1551 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Athletic Bilbao | 13 | 1170 | 0 | 0 | 1547 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 8 | 780 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 7 | 660 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 5 | 480 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guilherme Premier Liga · 2013 | 28 | €7.5M | €6.0M | fell |
| John Ruddy Premier League · 2013 | 27 | €5.0M | €4.5M | flat |
| Joel Robles Premier League · 2017 | 27 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Thomas Strakosha Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €7.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Etrit Berisha Serie A · 2014 | 25 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Zack Steffen Bundesliga · 2020 | 25 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Dean Henderson Premier League · 2024 | 27 | €12.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Giorgi Mamardashvili Laliga · 2022 | 22 | €10.0M | €35.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Valencia | Athletic Club | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 11 Jul 2025 | Athletic Club | Valencia | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Bilbao Athletic | Athletic Club | Unknown | €5.0M |
| 31 Jul 2020 | CD Basconia | Bilbao Athletic | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Bilbao U19 | CD Basconia | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Antiguoko U19 | Bilbao U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Antiguoko Yth | Antiguoko U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.