Armel Bella-Kotchap
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Armel Bella-Kotchap's performance-implied value at EUR 3.1M-7.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.9M-8.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.7M-8.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 13
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 62.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €6.6M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -34% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1347 (39% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 63 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1269
- Opponent strength
- 1515
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.7M – €8.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -43% to +69%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1347 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | CB | 19 | 1347 | 39% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1515 | 1269 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Southampton FC | Premier League | CB | 4 | 329 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1626 | 1277 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | CB | 4 | 163 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1229 | 1659 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Southampton FC | Premier League | CB | 24 | 1885 | 55% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 1604 | 1375 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | VfL Bochum | Bundesliga | CB | 22 | 1748 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1539 | 1419 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1748 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Southampton FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Bochum | 4 | 355 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yvann Maçon Ligue 1 · 2022 | 24 | €4.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Zinho Vanheusden Serie A · 2022 | 23 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Matteo Lovato Serie A · 2024 | 24 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Juan Cabal Serie A · 2024 | 23 | €3.5M | €7.0M | rose |
| Giangiacomo Magnani Serie A · 2021 | 26 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Leo Østigård Serie A · 2022 | 23 | €5.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Marin Pongracic Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €4.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Silvan Hefti Serie A · 2022 | 25 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Feb 2026 | Southampton | Hellas Verona | €5.0M | €7.5M |
| 1 Feb 2026 | Hellas Verona | Southampton | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 27 Aug 2025 | Southampton | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | PSV | Southampton | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 1 Sept 2023 | Southampton | PSV | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | VfL Bochum | Southampton | €12.0M | €10.0M |
| 2 Mar 2019 | VfL Bochum U19 | VfL Bochum | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | VfL Bochum U17 | VfL Bochum U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Duisburg Yth. | VfL Bochum U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Unterrath Yth. | Duisburg Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | M'gladbach Yth. | Unterrath Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Grimlingh. Jgd. | M'gladbach Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | RW Ahlen Yth. | Grimlingh. Jgd. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.