Cristian Cásseres Jr.
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Cristian Cásseres Jr.'s performance-implied value at EUR 3.8M-10.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.7M-8.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.9M-12.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.10x the positional average in the league (2498 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 85
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 71th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €4.9M vs market €9.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2498 (82% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.22
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.24
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 71 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1442
- Opponent strength
- 1488
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.9M – €12.1M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 49% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -7% (IQR -25% to +8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | CM | 30 | 2498 | 82% | 2 | 4 | 0.22 | 0.24 | 1488 | 1442 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | CM | 32 | 2706 | 88% | 1 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 1455 | 1437 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | CM | 32 | 1950 | 64% | 1 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.24 | 1484 | 1437 | 0.87 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | FC Toulouse | 7 | 486 | 0 | 0 | 1660 |
| 2023/24 | Trophee Des Champions | FC Toulouse | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1720 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juraj Kucka Serie A · 2013 | 26 | €7.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Idrissa Gueye Ligue 1 · 2015 | 26 | €7.5M | €18.0M | rose |
| Ivelin Popov Premier Liga · 2015 | 28 | €9.5M | €5.0M | fell |
| Abdoulaye Touré Ligue 1 · 2020 | 26 | €8.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Luca Antonelli Serie A · 2014 | 27 | €7.0M | €7.5M | flat |
| Balázs Dzsudzsák Premier Liga · 2013 | 27 | €13.0M | €11.0M | flat |
| Charles Kaboré Premier Liga · 2015 | 27 | €7.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Cheikhou Kouyaté Premier League · 2015 | 26 | €11.0M | €12.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jul 2023 | New York | Toulouse | €1.0M | €3.5M |
| 30 Nov 2018 | NYRB II | New York | Free / loan | €250k |
| 15 Mar 2018 | New York | NYRB II | Free / loan | €250k |
| 2 Feb 2018 | Dep. La Guaira | New York | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | DLG B | Dep. La Guaira | Unknown | €150k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.