Kevin Schade
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kevin Schade's performance-implied value at EUR 37.9M-62.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 24.0M-47.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 22.6M-56.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.98x the positional average in the league (2758 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 52
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 95.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €33.3M vs market €35.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2758 (81% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.39
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.40
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 96 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1612
- Opponent strength
- 1593
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €22.6M – €56.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -17% (IQR -27% to -13%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Brentford FC | Premier League | LW | 35 | 2758 | 81% | 8 | 4 | 0.39 | 0.40 | 1593 | 1612 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Brentford FC | Premier League | LW | 38 | 2301 | 67% | 11 | 2 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 1556 | 1583 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Brentford FC | Premier League | LW | 11 | 330 | 10% | 2 | 1 | 0.82 | 0.46 | 1513 | 1500 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Brentford FC | Premier League | RW | 18 | 729 | 21% | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.29 | 1553 | 1623 | 1.23 |
| 2022/23 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | RW | 8 | 172 | 6% | 1 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.40 | 1632 | 1561 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | RW | 21 | 825 | 27% | 4 | 1 | 0.55 | 0.39 | 1500 | 1543 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 1 | 105 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 4 | 123 | 0 | 2 | 1463 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 3 | 194 | 1 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €45.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Paco Alcácer Laliga · 2016 | 23 | €25.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Lucas Ocampos Laliga · 2020 | 26 | €32.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Dwight McNeil Premier League · 2024 | 25 | €22.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Iker Muniain Laliga · 2014 | 22 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Harvey Barnes Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €35.0M | €35.0M | flat |
| Erik Lamela Premier League · 2016 | 24 | €24.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Wilfried Zaha Premier League · 2019 | 27 | €45.0M | €45.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Freiburg | Brentford | €25.0M | €25.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Brentford | Freiburg | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 4 Jan 2023 | Freiburg | Brentford | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | SC Freiburg II | Freiburg | Unknown | €450k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | SC Freiburg U19 | SC Freiburg II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | E. Cottbus U17 | SC Freiburg U19 | €250k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | E. Cottbus Yth. | E. Cottbus U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Babelsberg Yth. | E. Cottbus Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.