Dwight McNeil
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dwight McNeil's performance-implied value at EUR 13.8M-28.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.9M-17.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.2M-17.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.60x the positional average in the league (1169 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 76
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 88.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €9.2M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -34% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1169 (34% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 89 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1556
- Opponent strength
- 1601
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.2M – €17.0M
Trajectory drivers: role change AM -> RW; relative output down 60% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +13% (IQR -29% to +122%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1169 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Everton FC | Premier League | RW | 22 | 1169 | 34% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.23 | 1601 | 1556 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Everton FC | Premier League | AM | 21 | 1371 | 40% | 4 | 8 | 0.79 | 0.59 | 1494 | 1567 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Everton FC | Premier League | LW | 35 | 2898 | 85% | 3 | 6 | 0.28 | 0.38 | 1584 | 1514 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Everton FC | Premier League | LW | 36 | 2499 | 73% | 7 | 3 | 0.36 | 0.48 | 1575 | 1475 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Burnley FC | Premier League | LW | 38 | 3112 | 91% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 1576 | 1442 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Burnley FC | Premier League | LW | 36 | 3072 | 90% | 2 | 5 | 0.21 | 0.28 | 1565 | 1480 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Burnley FC | Premier League | LM | 38 | 3345 | 98% | 2 | 6 | 0.22 | 0.24 | 1589 | 1535 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Burnley FC | Premier League | LW | 21 | 1598 | 47% | 3 | 5 | 0.45 | 0.53 | 1569 | 1501 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Burnley FC | Premier League | LW | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 1462 | 1502 | 1.15 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 3 | 257 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Burnley FC | 2 | 176 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Burnley FC | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Burnley FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Burnley FC | 2 | 108 | 0 | 0 | 1470 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Laliga · 2016 | 25 | €12.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Christian Pulisic Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €25.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Alex Iwobi Premier League · 2021 | 25 | €22.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Sofiane Feghouli Laliga · 2016 | 27 | €15.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Ayoze Pérez Premier League · 2021 | 28 | €18.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Miguel Almirón Premier League · 2019 | 25 | €20.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Erik Lamela Premier League · 2020 | 28 | €16.0M | €16.0M | flat |
| Joaquín Correa Laliga · 2018 | 24 | €10.0M | €30.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jul 2022 | Burnley | Everton | €17.0M | €18.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | FC Burnley U23 | Burnley | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Burnley U18 | FC Burnley U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Man Utd Youth | Burnley U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.