Facundo Medina
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Facundo Medina's performance-implied value at EUR 3.8M-7.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 12.5M-21.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.7M-16.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 7
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 76.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €16.4M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -44% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1366 (45% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 76 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1504
- Opponent strength
- 1446
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.7M – €16.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 39 pts; changed club; relative output up 38% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -41% to -18%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1366 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CB | 17 | 1366 | 45% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 1446 | 1504 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | CB | 29 | 2549 | 83% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1437 | 1484 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | CB | 31 | 2714 | 89% | 1 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 1468 | 1518 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | CB | 32 | 2785 | 81% | 2 | 4 | 0.19 | 0.13 | 1455 | 1626 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | CB | 31 | 2596 | 76% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1425 | 1492 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | CB | 24 | 2009 | 59% | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1456 | 1371 | 0.75 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Marseille | 4 | 306 | 0 | 0 | 1663 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Argentina | 2 | 172 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Trophee Des Champions | Olympique Marseille | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1832 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RC Lens | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1446 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | RC Lens | 6 | 495 | 0 | 1 | 1656 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | RC Lens | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1513 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philipp Lienhart Bundesliga · 2024 | 28 | €15.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Andrea Ranocchia Serie A · 2014 | 26 | €13.5M | €7.5M | fell |
| Isak Hien Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €20.0M | €22.0M | flat |
| Léo Dubois Ligue 1 · 2022 | 28 | €10.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Jeison Murillo Serie A · 2017 | 25 | €13.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Joseph Okumu Ligue 1 · 2024 | 27 | €9.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Cristian Ansaldi Premier Liga · 2014 | 28 | €10.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Aleksandar Dragovic Bundesliga · 2017 | 26 | €12.0M | €9.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Lens | Marseille | €18.0M | €18.0M |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Marseille | Lens | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 2 Jul 2025 | Lens | Marseille | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 2 Jul 2020 | CA Talleres | Lens | €3.5M | €4.5M |
| 30 Jan 2018 | River Plate II | CA Talleres | €800k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | River Plate U20 | River Plate II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.