Diogo Travassos
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Diogo Travassos's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.8M-10.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.4M-12.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.89x the positional average in the league (2436 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 71
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 26th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €6.5M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 26% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2436 (80% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.30
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.35
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 26 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1279
- Opponent strength
- 1314
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 26%
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.4M – €12.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 23 pts; changed club; team strength up (+126 Elo); role change RM -> RW.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +43% (IQR -49% to +99%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Moreirense FC | Liga Portugal | RW | 29 | 2436 | 80% | 5 | 3 | 0.30 | 0.35 | 1314 | 1279 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | CF Estrela Amadora | Liga Portugal | RM | 24 | 1720 | 56% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 1316 | 1152 | 0.51 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbër Zeneli Eredivisie · 2017 | 22 | €5.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Gustav Isaksen Superliga · 2023 | 22 | €7.5M | €20.0M | rose |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen Eredivisie · 2021 | 21 | €3.5M | €11.0M | rose |
| Mitchell van Bergen Eredivisie · 2020 | 21 | €3.6M | €2.0M | fell |
| Shamar Nicholson Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 24 | €2.5M | €4.5M | rose |
| Fábio Sturgeon Liga Portugal · 2016 | 22 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Heri Tavares Liga Portugal · 2019 | 22 | €3.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Sam Larsson Eredivisie · 2016 | 23 | €3.5M | €6.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Sporting | Braga | €5.5M | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Moreirense | Sporting | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 25 Aug 2025 | Sporting | Moreirense | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Sporting B | Sporting | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Estrela Amadora | Sporting B | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 2 Sept 2024 | Sporting B | Estrela Amadora | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Sporting U19 | Sporting B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Sporting U17 | Sporting U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Sporting Sub-15 | Sporting U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Sporting Yth. | Sporting Sub-15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.